Rick is back to generate the Optimal NFL Survivor entry! This is the best way to use math and data tools to construct the ideal path to victory.
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36 Comments
This is how you know Rick is just talented as what he does. Knows data and knows his way around numbers. Dude is the G.O.A.T.
Rick you are the most interesting and talented manโค
Thanks Rick. I trust your inputs. Your college brackets have been fire give or take last season!
Solid data driven analysis. Thanks for sharing Rick!
My man! You're a smart dude, I love seeing what you come up with; very orginial and organic.
Another great video today Good information and content
all those percentages change when a team isnt as good as they are projected to be. its week to week. upsets happen every week.
This is awesome. Thank you Rick!
Rick – another great analysis. ย Quick question – The "countifs" function in the FV column does not include all 18 weeks of data. Is this intentional or a typo?
Rick you are the friggen man!!!!
enjoyed the video but a couple questions: 1) wouldn't it be more optimal to do a simple solver in excel/google sheets with constraints setup for only using a team once and with goal to maximize the sum of the win percentages from each week? (because with your scoring system, i noticed that you didn't choose some of the top teams like bills and jaguars because this forces some of the better teams to get pushed back in season due to future value (which i agree with to an extent) 2) don't you need to devig the sportsbook odds to get true win %? 3) do any sites update the odds/win % for every game throughout the season to update this on weekly basis?
So basically whoever plays the Cardinals is your best bet interesting.
Rick that site is my secret weapon now no longer a secret grr
Love your videos man. I disagree slightly with your divisional game stats though. When a team wins a divisional game it is becomes a 2 game swing over their divisional opponent so it ends up skewing their next matchup. Just arguing that it isn't a less volatile option.
Hi, my thing is you can lose any week so why future value when theres upsets
Awesome video. Your strategy video's are my absolute favorite!
Thanks Good System, Is there anywhere we can download that google docs sheet you have created to view and look at?
I agree with most of what you said but I slightly disagree with saving that many of the top teams. Making it to Week 15 or later matters because at that point you can start to hedge bet Moneyline on the opposing teams using Martingale betting system guaranteeing profit. You saved the 49ers, Chiefs, Bengals and Eagles all until Week 15, I will definitely have used 2 or 3 of them by then if I make it that far. Your system seems too back end loaded for my liking, there is a decent chance that one of those 4 teams have a significant injury that makes them worse… saving all of them doesn't seem right. Making it to like Week 10 compared to Week 1 doesn't matter, but making it to Weeks 15-18 completely does because you can guarantee yourself profit by placing hedge bets.
Never take an away team? Loss last year in week 1. 49ers huge favorite against the Bears. Out in week 1. I will take some nugget thou.
Rick – what is optimal strategy if you have 10 survivor entries in a mass pool? How would you allocate your entries each week?
Great video. Very helpful. According to your chart week 1 is the only favorable pick for Wash Commanders. No other weeks is there a favorable percentage to win.
Where can I find the weekly odds for the whole season? I've checked a few sites and they only show week 1.
Hey Rick! Love the video. Any tips for pools that only allow you to pick a team once AND pick against a team once, and how to incorporate that into your decision โpathโ? Thanks!
How to calculate the score if dont mind me asking?
I just want to say, "I really enjoy your data strategy approach"
Great video. Question about my league. If you are allowed to buy back in to the survivor pool up to week 8 then is there any reason for buying multiple entries starting week 1? Should I just do a single entry and buy back in if I were to get a pick wrong?
Great video. Thanks for sharing the spreadsheet too!
Regarding the myths, I think they are actually true, but you hit on the key point – they are baked in. That means IF you see the bookmakers give a large spread to one team, you can trust it because they've already accounted for division rivalries and home field advantage. As a Steeler fan, I can attest since our former QB had more wins in Cleveland than any of their QBs.
This is great. Is the spreadsheet being updated every week?
Any chance we could get an updated spreadsheet? The odds have changed dramatically on some of the games. pleeeaaasssseee
Rick the real MVP ๐ฅฒ
What about having multiple entries in a survivor pool? For example I have 5 entries in 1 pool. Advice I received was to try and pick the same team for all 5 entries, until around halfway or better in the season then mix it up a bit. Donโt think Iโd want to pick all 5 the same, but maybe 3-4?
90k to first for 1000 people? Does that mean if all 1000 people signed up, you keep 10k + compete? Just curious.
Great Video Rick! Is there anyway to update the score to value early week % to win at a higher rate? I know a lot of the โgoodโ teams are being saved for last, but in many pools it is over by week 13/14 and those teams would not get picked using this system.
Awesome video, per usual RIck! You are the best in the biz at large pool pick optimization.
So do you only get to pick one team per week and then you canโt lose them the rest of the season?
Great stuff! Should help my chance of winning go from .02% to .04%!! ๐