We sit down with Sports Card Investor/Collector Brent Weyer (@deepvalueinvestor1 on IG) to talk about how psychology and human behaviour impact the sports card market. We will hear his theories on which type of cards will hold value and provide gains to investors in the future. He will explain how he uses the Pareto Principle to help guide his purchasing decisions. His thoughts on the vintage versus modern approaches, the importance of scarcity over grade, the perceived safety fallacy and more so join us live and bring your questions and comments as they will be in play.
Saturday June 17 @ 7:00pm PST / 8:00pm MST / 9:00pm CST / 10:00pm EST
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23 Comments
Great Analysis. However, The different goudey Ruths are not "variations" (that is a modern invention), they are simply different cards/poses of the Great Gambinio.
Great discussion as always. I Found Brent's takes to be spot on, even if people don't want to beleive them. Stay in the hobby long enough and watch it play out.
Another banger!! I definitely bought a burrito after this episode of Sports Card Live lol … love Brent's insights, learned some goodies from him today!! Could be Brad Pitt's third brother!
Adding to what Rod said, it's difficult to compare cards with stocks since the charts on cards were formed in a more illiquid market relative to $SPY for example. Also, high population cards can quickly be dumped with few buyers to support the price. In most other liquid markets, buyers step in quickly to mitigate price declines. I've seen cards trade for 10k less in as little as a week on PWCC. I admit I like the charts on PSA's sight–many cards are trading below pre-COVID levels, which to me speaks to value as opposed to a card having fallen 60% from COVID levels. To infuse psychology into this example, we can look at the ''anchoring and adjustment heuristic.'' Here, people assume they are getting a great value based upon how high the card traded relative to where it is now. To illustrate the point, 1986 Fleer Michael Jordan PSA 10 all-time high is $738k on 01/31/2021 and is now about $170k. You may be tempted to think that is a great deal, but consider this: on 12/09/2019 it sold for $32k. And to infuse some economic theory in here, we can use Hyman Minsky who states that asset prices plunge as people are forced to liquidate as they can no longer afford to service the debt on the leveraged purchase of those assets. The 1986 Fleer Jordan could very easily get cut in half from these levels and still be overvalued. There are 318 PSA 10's. I have 2 1986 O-Pee-Chee Barry Bonds PSA 10's that I think have more upside than the Jordan – plus the population is only 38. I'm willing to hold for years and do not need to sell. I'll take 762 home runs vs a Bowman Chrome prospect /5 all day long. Great content, great show, and great guest!
I do completely disagree with the use of the Pareto Principle applied to Tom Brady cards. As the growth of the hobby increases, more and more people will want to own a Tom Brady rookie. Because they can't afford a higher end Tom Brady, they will be forced to purchase lower end Brady cards such as his Bowman Chrome. Yes, the Contenders, Authentic, and SpX Brady may hold most investment value in the future, the lower end cards should maintain their value as well. Not a strong analysis by your guest.
As a high end investor I’m taking super low pop highest grade possible Barry Bonds rookies. It’s already up in a down market. Sadly, people are dumping boatloads of money into Bowman Chrome prospects of which none will ever sniff 1% of the talent we ever saw from the GOAT of baseball. Smarten up!
There’s always going to be people in every category of wealth
Just like there’s always going to be cards in every category of monetary value
There’s always going to be collectors in every wealth category
The wealthiest will target the rarest and the cards with the most $value$
The less wealthy will keep the lower $value$ cards in demand
it's pronounced "Pa-Ray-Toe" not "Pa-Ree-Toe"
I think my disagreement with Brent would be based of something he himself said and Leighton pointed out too. Brent said he can’t afford the top 20% of the 33 goudey Ruth so he’s not going to buy a 2 however I’d say 90% of collectors can’t afford a top 20% Ruth, that’s what keeps the demand and value in the lower grades because that’s what the majority of hobbyists could possibly afford.
Psych major here. Another aspect is Freudian Displacement. I’m mad/dissatisfied at myself for not having something so let me take it out on someone else. Sports Card Investor is a target every time. I couldn’t put up with that. A lot of channel hosts become punching bags and I applaud them for hanging in there.
I’ve often thought what drives a lot of hobby motivation is:
“Why didn’t I realize that cards were going to be a thing when I was collecting in the early 80’s and buy a couple of Jordan’s. I was so stupid, etc.., so let me make up for it somehow. “
Good show Jeremy.
Man you guys love saying pareto.. But I think you are over generalizing, and although similar I think its more like a bell curve than the pareto principal.
There are a bulk of cards in the middle that have some value, and then the outliers on each end that basically have no value or hold a lot of value. You will see this in every subset, and then it is exacerbated by its place in the card market as a whole.
You take 1997 topps chrome basketball. Jordan and Kobe on the 1% high end, guys like Grant Hill, KG, Pippen.. somewhere in the middle, and then Rony Seikaly, Danny Manning, etc.. on the low. Then take where that set sits among similar chrome sets throughout the years. (probably in the top 5%). And so on.. Where do chrome sets fit. Where does basketball as a sport fit..
But you cant just say 20% will have value and 80% will be at 0. That is just wrong. And you also need to factor in the idea that nobody alive has probably ever seen most of these older vintage baseball stars play, and there isnt any video record of most of them so people dont draw attachment.
In 75 years if someone wants to learn about Kobe Bryant there will probably be 10 documentaries, 100,000,000 hours of HD video footage, and 1000's of books that include him in some way.
This guy is definitely looking at card collecting completely wrong i think
Yea but you're taking about the top millionaires collecting compared to the normal collector this podcast is stupid… it's makes no relevant information to the average collector, of course we all know the best cards in the world are the best cards to invest in…. this dude is an idiot
Favorite comment of the show, "…these are mint cards. How mint do they have to be?" 🙂
great show guys!! for me t is all of it hobby, investment and passion!
I’m now craving a chicken pareto from Taco Bell 🤤
I'm italian and the way you guys pronounce Pareto is a disgrace
My problem with his theory is that people love iconic cards. Pop report means very little to most collectors. If your in this hobby to get rich only good luck 😊
Let me get this straight. You’re saying that the very best players with rare and super rare cards will be worth more than players who aren’t the best with rare and non rare cards? Or that the very best players will be worth more in the long term than other players? Not to be a turd here but I could have broke that down for you in about 2 minutes
Either way, we need something to talk about and I still enjoyed it
Riveting content. And I thought my message was edgy. Sheeesz!
I'm not sure if he's factoring the population on this Earth is constantly climbing and more people eventually will enter the hobby
There are for instance let's say 20k different Nolan Ryan's. Out of the 20k different cards only a select few will be pursued in time and hold any significant value. Obviously this isn't taking grading into account.
Excellent!! Learned a lot. Quick question for clarification-
Seemed like Brent was suggesting that (controlling for all other factors like player popularity, economy, supply and demand etc),
1) the best of the best Pareto cards will increase in value and everything else will “go down” in the very long term. Example- my modern prism silver of whatever player is 100% doomed to lose value because it won’t “make the cut” as there are hundreds of serial numbered cards.
Or
2) Low end Pareto and non Pareto cards can continue to rise in value, but at a much smaller multiple, margin or percentage as the high end Pareto.
Which of these two options would be considered to be the more accurate according to Pareto? Thanks!