On this edition of Monday Match Analysis, Gill Gross previews the 2023 Italian Open in Rome, the final Masters 1000 of the European clay court season ahead of Roland Garros. Novak Djokovic, fresh off a Madrid withdrawal, is the defending champion and the No. 1 seed, followed by Carlos Alcaraz, who has won two consecutive titles. Daniil Medvedev continues to look for some traction on his least favorite surface as the 3-seed, and Casper Ruud the 4-seed is desperate for a big run. Monte Carlo finalists Andrey Rublev and Holger Rune also loom large.
00:00 Rome Intro
04:42 Djokovic Quarter
13:57 Ruud Quarter
24:36 Medvedev Quarter
32:34 Alcaraz Quarter
38:40 Final Weekend
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Gill Gross provides in-depth ATP tennis analysis. Match breakdowns, draw previews, the latest news, and other tennis insights…
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32 Comments
Novak will have a hard time beating Felix, rune and Korda. These three are very good players. I am Novak’s fan by the way. I want to see Novak win again in rome. Honestly , I can see Novak winning the French open and Wimbledon. He is the best out of the big two: Nadal and Novak. There is No big three. Fed is waaaaaaay behind these two.
Great analysis as always Gill!! I don't think Alcaraz will go very far in Rome..Maybe he ll be a little overcooked after 2 straight titles..and it will be a good thing for him to have some rest before RG..
I think the winner of Djokovic vs Sinner will be the one who 'll lift the trophy.. playing against Tsitsipas in the final.
I want to see Novak winning rome but I don’t see him doing it.
ALMOST all won by Nadal/Djoker – Murray won in 2016 😄
Fun fact: starting from 2005, Nadal and/or Djokovic have made the final each year. If your prediction that Djokovic loses before the final comes true, that will be an 18-year-long streak broken
I don't think Novak will go far in this tournament. My hope is he can show improvement and possibly get 3-4 matches in.
He's going to lose #1 and even if he wins, Alcaraz will reclaim #1 merely by showing up but I think it's a mistake on his part. He's quickly becoming the star player of the year with a 29-2 record and four titles including two M1000 titles. Impressive, but he's consistently shown he's solid for 2 tournaments before hurting himself in the third tournament.
He simply doesn't need to play Rome and I think he's making a mistake by risking injury right before the FO. Yes, he'll be ranked #1 at RG and that's prestigious in Rafa's backyard but he needs to play the long game and this is not how you do it.
Rafa will not play RG. He's not ready physically and he's not even close to being in form so I cannot see him risking an early blow out coming in as the 14th or 15th seed knowing he has zero chance of winning the tournament much less being competitive. I think what we will likely see is a retirement announcement in the next 3-4 months.
I want novak to win … Beat all 3 New wanna be Big3
Feel it will be a Carlitos vs Novak final
You say that Sinner is capable of beating Djokovic here by rushing and overpowering Novak in a FH-to-FH battle (on slow clay; it is very difficult to rush Novak on even fast indoor, but slow clay now), but will lose to Alcaraz (who while currently slightly more explosive in his court coverage has the tendency to get rushed when on D, especially FH-to-FH).
Doesn't compute tactically. Djokovic is the player with the best counterpunching and pace absorption on tour; why would Sinner find an advantage on Djokovic and win (on slow clay mind you) FH-to-FH and not against Carlos who is a better mover but has middling defense compared to Djokovic?
I gotta say this Gill, you're a great analyst but sometimes your pundit nature does shine through when talking about tactics, especially when you're making predictions.
(Commented before watching) I think it might actually be good for Carlos to take a loss before RG, go in without the pressure of a Barcelona-Rome winstreak. That said, I don't know who could serve it to him before the semis really. And I really really want to see him play Novak.
You provide good insights. But I think that with a few tweaks you can increase the number of visitors/subscribers to your channel.
For starters, you should aim to shorten the length of your videos by half. I would say that no video should be longer than 30 minutes. That should minimize the video version of TL;DR. Also, I suggest the use of more graphics/pictures for balance. Finally, more coverage of women tennis (even if limited to the top ten) will help increase viewership of your channel.
Think Rune beats Novak
Think Novak does well and gets upto top-tier match form. He gets to Semis or Final and I'm picking him to win it all like last year. Thanx Gill. Best, Milan
Sinner is a choker remember. Don't c him getting close to winning this
32:18 "Excuse the armchair psychology"
But I love armchair psychology! And besides, isn't that a very relevant thing when it comes to making predictions?
I hope Sinner could win his first masters title here. It would be perfect
It would be so painful to see Sinner beeing defeated by Alcaraz again
Wow that finals result🙌🔥
Gill, loved ur post, a very well detailed one !😊
Appreciate you listening to the constructive criticism of leaving the picks up on the screen a little longer, Gill! Great preview as always although I haven’t finished it yet.
Yeah, I wanted to pick Sinner over Alcaraz, being on his home soil and wanting that first Masters1000 win, but it’s so hard to pick him on such a slow surface. Sinner is gonna have a lot of trouble trying to rush Alcaraz the way he did in Miami, and I also suspect Alcaraz will just play better than he did that match. I don’t see anyone stopping Alcaraz unless Djokovic manages to hit Rome 2022 form out of nowhere, and even then it’d be close.
Those two since 2005😮. What a statistic! What excellent players they are/were!
When will I see Bublik in the finals?
Doubt Rune reach qf here still doubt Djoka as well… 🤔
I think Holger Rune will win this one
No way Sinner beats Djokovic. Nole wins this.
Matteo Arnaldi!! What a player!!! 😮
Only two things are certain in this reality. Death and Murray in early popcorn match 🤣
Have you seen Rublev and Khachanov play doubles, Gill? They were great in Madrid, and won the title. Is it me, or have Ruud and Stefanos been dipping this year?
Alcaraz legs will be out in Roland Garros, yeaaaa baby….😅😅😅
Spot on with Murray v Fognini, was a great match with lots of Fabio magic. Arnaldi was super impressive v a good Schwartzmann
U are hyping up too much on Sinner & Zandschulp.
Murray v Fognini was a very interesting match but hardly called a classic