Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) and Byron Lindeque (@TheModelManiac) to break down BETS and DFS options for the 2024 Zurich Classic
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it is the RO to Balla PGA show for the
Zur classic and we have got a wonderful
fully fledged field of Ted
Potters Somey Cochrans like your daddy’s
your Caddy’s Daddy’s on the bag you know
like we’ve got it all Spence so this is
the Zur classic how are you on this fine
Monday evening I’m doing well Byron like
we were talking about it before we came
on air it’s kind of nice to have a
tournament I know a lot of people are
down on this week and I’m curious to see
exactly what we get from an from a
matchup betting perspective and when you
look at these placement markets maybe we
could have some made cut potential bets
that can come into play or miscut bets
depending on which way you want to play
it but you know we were talking about
Scotty Sheffer and a lot of those
tournaments have this wild hold
percentage when Scotty’s involved in it
because you get this situation where his
price is getting reduced
the rest of the market is also getting
reduced next to him it’s G to be nice to
not have to go against Scotty in in an
event and it’s amazing watching him play
golf because he’s almost like a a cat
out there that has nine lives like no
matter what he does he manages a way to
scratch and Claw his way out into pars
when he’s made a mistake and then he’s
chipping in from off the green to make
Eagles in positions and it’s just so
difficult to beat a player of his
stature when
statistically like I don’t know where he
is in your model and I run things from a
little longer duration of time like he
is nearly a shot better than everybody
else on the PGA tour and those numbers
are only going up over what he’s been
doing recently so it’s just an
astounding performance that we’ve seen
from him so far in 2024 yeah when when
he’s in models like obviously ranking
him first versus second doesn’t do him
Justice no not at all the power rating
differential between first and second is
at times double you know it’s incredible
it’s a really incredible situation that
you see when that rating comes through
so he’s Spencer I had wam Clark and
Brian Harman finished second to Scotty I
had W Clark finished second to Scotty I
had say the gala finished second to
Scotty
now what I hate him I hate him so much I
hate him and and the thing is is I know
everybody makes the argument of just
make the bets with Scotty not in the
market those PR are so cut and slashed
into nothing they’re unable at that
point so I I don’t know I mean we’ve had
discussions of what a fair price should
be on Scotty and I’ve always been a
believer that like that seven to one
number is what’s fair but like even as
of late those numbers have been getting
pushed down in my model so um you know
we’ll see from an outright betting
perspective how we want to handle that
moving forward but uh it is nice to have
a tournament to where there’s there’s a
little bit extra strategy this week with
the team nature of it and I I do think
from a model building perspective like
that’s what you and I specialize in so
there’s a way to get funky and unique
with the way that we’re doing it you
have different formats here there’s a
lot of strategy that comes into play yes
so let’s chat about that because we I’m
the model Maniac you are the model
Maestro Master Class of the industry
when it comes to this kind of stuff
Spence let’s note out a little bit in
chat about how we built our models
because it’s not often that every week
you get to say okay rebuilt a fullon new
model for this week because this is
essentially what you had to do because
we’ve got best ball we’ve got alternate
shots you know this is this is what I
spent hundreds like of hours basically
on Ridder cup stuff for you know in a
similar way it’s a fascinating way to
model out because you’ve got all these
variables that you got to put together I
ended up putting together an alternate
shot team ranking and a best ball team
ranking my best ball was just ramp up
the birdies ramp up the P five scoring
ramp up the good shots on approaches
give the guys some good Spike putting
it’s a pretty simple equation there I’m
not overthinking it too much obviously
cater it to this golf courses distances
and yardages Etc then on the alternate
shot side of things this is where it
gets real fun Spence the scolf course
has got four par 3es three of them come
on the odd holes so what happens is
you’ve got guys who will be teeing off
on the odd holes they’ll be hitting
their approach Roo shots on the 11 even
holes so you’re going to have sorry not
11 the nine or the eight even holes
they’re going to be hitting in approach
shot and then they have their three par
3es which turns it into 11 of the 18
approach shots for the round come from
that golfer teeing off on the odd holes
so what it equates to is drivers of the
golf ball the best ones need to be
teeing off on the even holes the best
iron players for long irons need to be
teting off on the odd holes that’s how
I’ve come to optimizing these positions
and and trying to get these teams and
pairings working together is my Internet
working Spencer yeah yep okay sounds
good um you were staring at me like I
was speaking gibberish there so just
making sure I’m making sense to y’all so
that’s basically how I did it kind of
just making sure I can piece those two
pieces together good drivers going off
on the even holes good iron players
teeing off on the odd holes how did you
yeah I mean there’s a lot of strategies
and like that’s one of the things I
built into my model is I I was
essentially trying to
find the optimal strategy getting built
into my model here in the exact way that
you explained it I it’s redundant to go
over the exactly the same answers that
you talked about but I do think that
there’s an optimal sense of how each one
of these teams comped it doesn’t mean
that they necessarily make the correct
answer and we have seen in all sports
mistakes get made all the time where
somebody goes on the opposite of what
you think would be proper from um uh
from like a standpoint of what should be
the edge that you would have there but I
think this is a fun tournament for all
those reasons Byron and um and I think
also when you look at the the beste ball
format you’re going to have to find
aggressive golfers and players that can
attack and and I think when you look at
some of these teams you do have better
suited options than others that can go
with that mentality and I think the one
thing that you and I are very different
on this week and it’ll be interesting to
at least talk about as we run through
this board and it doesn’t necessarily
change anything from a DFS answer I I
think more of where this comes down to
would be from an outright betting card I
don’t know exactly who you’re on this
week I haven’t seen the names yet I do
know that you have a lot of 40 to1 plus
options I went aggressive at the top of
the board which is a really a really
funky answer to give for a tournament
like this but when I looked at this and
if you want to just look at the last
five years and this is not in a
particular order here Xander Klay Lehman
cam Smith Ron Palmer those are all 12 to
one or less winners you have Riley and
Hardy you hit them last year that was a
great call I don’t know what number you
exactly got them at but they were around
40 to1 yeah about a top 15 team if you
really look at it from a betting answer
there and then horol and piery well that
sounds like an outrageous combination
that you would expect to be 100 to one
they were like 30 35 to one and the
reason why I remember that one is
because my model loved them that week
and I couldn’t stomach betting them at
30 to1 in a golf tournament that I never
got there on them so I actually think
that because of these strategies that
come into play there is an advantage on
attacking some of these better teams at
the top of the board I just think
they’re better players I think it works
better for best ball I think it works
better for alternate shot wi you have an
ability in beste ball that you have two
elite players potentially in some of
these pairings trying to make bir and
then an alternate shot you don’t have
somebody holding you back in these
situations I know there’s a lot of teams
like Kevin kizner was a better golfer at
this point like where you get the kers
and the Scott Browns of the world Scott
Brown yeah I mean that’s like a wild
pairing and you’re gonna get a lot of
names like that that can potentially
Spike but I kind of do think that the
winner of this tournament is going to
be I I I don’t know somebody in the top
15 or 20 favorites of this tournament
probably sure would you say favorites or
favorites in the model or you know in
our hearts no I’m just kidding um cuz
there are a few I would say probably on
the betting board like my model is not
too dissimilar from what we’re getting
from the betting board like the only
massive deviation I would say inside of
my model would
be Russ Cochran and Eric Cole and that’s
just because I don’t have very much data
on Cochran and Cole kind of uh from an
optimal sense of the way that I put
together the holes like he carried that
team in a lot of ways and I don’t
necessarily believe my model is how
strong it is it’s just too limited of
data there but pretty much everybody
else that you want to talk about of
being a top 15 team this week uh outside
of Lauren and pot guer like would be 50
to one or
less I have
got nine guys inside the Top If we if
you rank the salary tiers I’ve got nine
of the
first 13 inside the top
10 yeah according to my ranking so there
I’m very similar to that um and it’s
going to be all the names that you would
expect like I I assume Xander and can’t
lay are one for
you no really they are not I actually
have a different i i reran a few things
and I added some pting in to the mix and
change things up a little bit so I
actually have a number one that’s not
Patrick Handley and Xander shofy do you
want to switch up this show a little bit
this week like obviously we’ll run
through these tiers but I think it would
be fun for everybody listening for us to
fire back like we don’t need to go
through 80 teams of exactly where we
have everybody ranked but we could fire
back and forth of where we have these
teams on our models and and it might
give an indication for everybody out
there of of not even the optimal way to
go just how we’re seeing the boards this
week cool do you want to start from 10
and go down sure okay number 10 for the
model Maniac we’ve got Doug gim and Chan
Kim at $8,300 Spencer we got a lot of
fir power in these two boys their number
one trait being the alternate shot where
they rank ninth they rank 15th for best
ball so that’s what got them into the
top 10 there was the alternate shot
pedigree which I’m very much looking
forward to exposing in Showdown and by
the way I will be looking to very much
focus in on the alternate shot Showdown
stuff since there’s not a lot of models
like this out there that people can get
their hands on and and find these
optimal pairings and guys that can
really mesh together from a statistical
perspective not just a Vibes so we at R
baller if you use code tof or code
Maniac have these models out there for
you guys to use all the big websites
that you know have these amazing
databases they can’t put together a
shortterm model like this like we which
is really kind of the fun part about
what we do Spencer so fun little part
about that and who is your number 10 guy
well I’ll double down on that answer I
mean just to get another name out there
and I’ll give you my tenth in a second
like I actually have gim and Kim eth in
my model for all the reasons that you
talked about uh their expected scoring
as a combination an alternate shot was
inside of the top 10 in my model that’s
kind of what pushed them up the board
there were a lot of similar uh
combinations that they put together with
it that made a lot of sense but the
number 10 team for me are are two
golfers that have really been thriving
in my model for quite a little bit of
time and I’ve been expecting finishes
from particularly one of them which
would be Davis Thompson that has been a
victory at some point and we haven’t
gotten that yet but I think Thompson and
Novak are a very fun pair uh sixth in my
model for expected team scoring an
alternate shot when you look at the way
that they’re able to produce you have
that weighted proximity from Novak
that’s going to look great you blend
that into the recalculated driving in my
model that’s inside of the top 20 for me
with Davis Thompson I think it’s a
really nice pairing for those two you
know that’s kind of like the range I’m
talking about at the end of the day
where we’re looking at a you know you
can price shop out there but 60 to one
sort of a team that they’re a Longshot
option that has a legitimate chance to
win this tournament and I wouldn’t be
shocked if that’s the kind of name that
gets across the Finish Line with it but
um you know we’ll talk about how I built
my C in a second it is very aggressive
at the top I’m very curious to see what
you did because that’s not by that’s not
youro typically Spencer um my my ranking
for them was 11th their their best their
four ball was their best metric at
eighth and they 17th when it comes to
alternate shot for me so did you mention
which way they go for you in those
departments uh they are 11th for
alternate shot and uh for best
ball see for best ball the one problem
that they had at least inside of my
model a little bit is my math like
Thompson better than at like Novak for
this course so I think it gets carried a
little bit by how far Davis Thompson and
that’s kind of the profile that I like
this week these golfers that are ball
Strikers and potential birdie makers and
and I think when you throw them with a
partner that makes sense like it’ll give
Davis Thompson a little bit more freedom
to kind of just go out there and fire so
um I think I probably like them in that
format more than my model did just
because Novak held them down a little
bit in that area but I mean it’s
essentially two top 16 grades in both
areas perfect we got CA going on in the
house here saying gim and Kim remember
he showed up here with the Bryce G and
Whatchamacallit names last week and I
was giggling at them and there they were
inside the top half of the field as as
opt you know options in the sixes so
I’ll never laugh at
cards comments on YouTube ever again
till the next time you make me giggle
but um gim Kim and Tom Thomson and Novak
were two of the three names that were
brought up by Byron show last night yes
I can’t I can barely remember that show
that was a blur for me but I did like
those dudes so I can’t remember who it
was that mentioned them but he sounded
pretty smart Okay um yeah I I like it
Spence you know I think they they two
guys that really have shown the the
potential to to spike you know on T
particularly Novak of the two he’s
actually had the better results recently
so maybe he can drag
Thompson’s Burly body you know into that
contention Arena now with you know
Thompson bringing what the actual moak
lacks you know with the skills yeah um
for me the two Canadians coming in with
number nine for me were the Nick Taylor
and the Adam hadwins I have two more
Canadians coming up but number nine that
was them 14th in alternate shot and
seventh in b ball they make birdies like
crazy the both of them I love their
Spike ability there’s a lot to like from
these two guys $9,200 one of my favorite
player pool options yeah you know very
affordable nice for the balance build
situation I think they finished second
year last year so a lot to like from the
two of them I will go with the opposite
Canadian pairing that I have I have them
flipped a little bit differently than
you but I have Cory Connors and Taylor
pendrith and for me I love the
combination that they brought together
just because you look at pendrith in the
best ball
situation he’s essentially like a top 10
golfer for me in that format here Cory
Connor becomes great for alternate shot
I always wonder how they end up merging
it together when they need the specific
formats together but my model liked a
lot about them um almost throughout the
board and it pushed a little bit higher
than I was expecting like when I first
started running the numbers there were
some red flag situations coming in with
pendra profile that I was worried it was
going to hold them back a little bit but
as I kept adding more things and I kept
reeing it and I kept getting it to
exactly where it needed to be uh from a
weight standpoint on it uh they just
kept climbing every single time
something got added yeah they’re a fun
combo I’ll just go ahead and say that
they’re my sixth rank Canadian combo
they rank fourth in alternate shards
because they you get the Canadian ball
striking from Connors on approach and
then you take the iron play out of
pendrith Sands basically he’s not his
best straight but he can hit the ball a
million miles off the te that’s a good
combination you know so you should
expect pendrith to be the guy hitting
the drives Conor to be doing the long
iron proximity stuff and then guess what
pendri can put exactly so that’s a nice
little combination right there which
Connors typically lets them down after
the t- shot so obviously if you’re going
to be hitting 11 approach shots you
likely going to have 11 putts or chips
you know but most of the time they’re
going to be they’re going to be putts
and it’s going to be a fun time granted
they are from 200 plus a lot of those
shots so you got to have a bit of short
game but for the most part you’re going
to be putting
my my eighth ranked options and I will
give my first outright of the night that
I can’t even remember what the odds were
for these two because I went to bed
365 and they have an eway section there
like an each way extra section that
allows you to bet top three and it gives
you the best odds like outright odds so
instead of you know like taking more
positions and getting crappier odds I
went to take the best out outright odds
in just a top three because I’ve been
cashing top twos like crazy you know I
don’t need a top five I just need a
literally runner up you know so I was
totally fine taking better numbers for
them in that market and I before I
mention you I want to make sure I have
the exact right number that I got it at
because I’ve got Keith Mitchell
and who’s his partner Joel Damon at 75
to1 over there at what himac call it be
365 so if we can see those guys getting
taken care of here we are in good shape
because Keith Elite driver of the golf
ball Joel Damon very good long iron
player and between the two of them they
can kind of get their stuff together so
alternate shot is definitely where I’ll
be looking to cash in on these two guys
ranking seventh for me they’re very
affordable at $8,800 in DFS and 75 to1
was a very nice number for me for these
two guys um very very very very excited
to see how these guys play together one
of the best alternate shot pairings that
I had in my model also that 75 to one
number that you just mentioned is a
great price in the space like I don’t
know if it’s Fallen I don’t know where
it’s at exactly but like in the when I
recalculated yeah that’s what I
currently see right now I guess from a
best ball standpoint I have some
concerns with them I I just like
Mitchell in this field is 71st and
weighted birdie are better uh Damon is
93rd you know maybe that hurts a little
bit from their actual win Equity but
they’re a top 15 team for me too they
didn’t make the top 10 but uh I think
that 75 to one number that you got is
great and and as I mentioned the eighth
team for me is Doug gim and Chan Kim
which I I heavily considered putting
them in as an outright back like they’re
they’re to me very similar to the answer
that I talked about with horel when that
combination won with piery like I wanted
to find a way to get there in the
outright Market I know you hear 50 to1
and you think you can kind of be fine
with that but I I don’t know I still
think it’s a little bit shallow for my
liking like I don’t have a problem with
anybody who wants to punch that ticket
at 50 to1 but it was close Byron like I
will be upset if that’s who ends up
winning this contest because my model
liked them a lot but it’s kind of you
can’t bet everybody we say that every
single week exactly and you went very
you had a a few other options that you
went very aggressive at so we’ll have to
wait and see who those are for me number
seven Taylor Montgomery Ben Griffin
don’t know what H got them up there but
we must be loving the spike putting
potential you know I think that’s just
exactly what Montgomery brings to the
party and he’s also a very good wedge
player which you know if you’re going to
be the the driver of the golf ball which
he likely will have to be in this
pairing because Ben Griffin’s a much
better long iron player than he is they
both kind of crap off the tea so he’s
going to be doing the driving but
they’ve got some short game to kind of a
very similar partnership you know when
it comes to skill level and skill set
so sometimes you’re looking for
counterbalancing options sometimes
you’re looking for the same do we want
to chat about that Spencer is there a
particular combination that appeals to
you more in this kind of format or is it
just easy come easy go I don’t really
care who the partnership is as long as
it makes sense in one one sense or the
other yeah I mean the partnership
obviously matters but I I think you
either need to be Polar Opposites or
exactly the same in a lot of these spots
and I know that’s like kind of going
through the entire spectrum of that
answer there but when you look at
Montgomery and Griffin you two Elite
scramblers of the golf ball they’re 16th
in my model um have no problems with
them just a little bit outside of where
you have them this week cool cool cool
cool they are affordable in the $8,700
range they the best ranked you know they
come up first when it comes to the 8K
range for me so who do you have is it
sixth uh it’ll be seventh for me for you
uh I cannot imagine that you have these
two grading out well that’s just my
prediction here I’ll you can tell me
exactly where you have them but the
guard Brothers seventh overall yeah no
dice all the way down I figured as much
24th the the better than I thought to be
honest Byron I I thought you were going
to tell me you had them like 40th I have
them eighth for alternate team team
ranking I love how they pair up in
alternates it’s just I don’t know what
we’re getting really from Rasmus you
know on the every shot kind of thing
from the ball striking front there on on
the fourball side what did you what did
you like about them Spencer for seventh
ranked the the alternate shot is what
pushed them up for me I you know there’s
also a lot of these are two guys like
there’s a lot of pairings that they may
be friends or you know we don’t know how
some of these things came together these
are two players that have played
together quite a bit for obvious reason
so um yeah I mean this is this is kind
of for me where a situation where the
price makes a lot of sense yeah and you
know I could if I manually adjusted a
bit of hoard rasmus’s I think there’s a
lot of missing information there
unfortunately for me
I that’s that’s one of the things I did
I went through and I hand corrected a
lot of the information for Rasmus and uh
Nikolai as you know Byron probably more
so than most people because I talk about
him quite frequently I know we haven’t
gotten the best 2024 from him but like
there was a time coming into the season
I always build my model out like whether
it’s for when we do season long fantasy
or I try to build it as look ahads for
Majors hoard was a top 20 projected
player for me this season and we’ve
gotten nothing close to that answer on
un fortunately um at some point I do
think we turn it around and he looked
great at the Masters for spurts of that
tournament until he imploded you know on
like the back end of yeah pretty much
and a lot of people did it wasn’t just
him it’s that 11th and 12th we talked
about it they were difficult holes that
caught a lot of people but I I still
think we get the best from hoard at some
point and maybe playing with his brother
is what ends up pushing him and Spencer
the alternate shots like just to nerd
out over this for two seconds is really
really cool because hoard is an elite
driver of the ball like distance-wise
and he’s a very good wedge player he’s
not the best when it comes to long isons
from if you just make Rasmus an average
long iron player slightly brother and
his
brother the the driving and the wedge
play is where he typically would
struggle I’d imagine and they complement
each other very nicely you know like
Rasmus is a very fun alternate shot you
know compatriot yeah to have for me
coming in number six we already spoke
about Cory Connor so we’ll just leave
them alone who do you have ranked six
Spencer so I have Adam hadwin and Nick
Taylor okay for me that was my one of my
outrights that I went to at 40 to1 it
was a did I want them or did I want gim
and Kim and we saw what Taylor and
hadwin were able to put together last
year almost winning this event I I think
this is a combination that makes a lot
of sense from almost any way that you
want to look at this like they were
steady across the board and all the
areas for me and even when I look for an
overall rank like Taylor’s one of those
golfers that has boom potential at any
point that he puts it together and I
think that’s going to help the best ball
format and also when you look at
alternate shot that’s kind of where they
excelled for me which is the funny
answer to that because I think Taylor’s
ability to get hot and even hadwin while
he’s a safe golfer in a lot of sense of
the words here I think you give him
extra Freedom here this is a fun
combination that I thought 40 to1 was
too high at that price
yep I thought so too because we were on
them together and I’ve got them at 40
to1 exactly they they didn’t grade out
exactly how I was hoping for them to I’d
have preferred for them to be sixth spot
like you know where con Connor and
pendrith are but I know what I’m getting
from them and like we said this model is
built to lead you in the right direction
is not entirely accurate I think there’s
a lot to also kind of be digested on the
side of an like analytics you can say so
more in this week than ever you know
because of the the Partnerships and and
the feel that you can feel there um love
the number very nice number Nick
Taylor’s numbers always good like they
they hardly ever they just dis they
disrespect that guy all the time yeah he
gets too far boosted up the board
there’s a lot of players like that like
we we’ve talked about the Eric kl’s of
the world and and the thing with Taylor
is he actually wins golf tournaments
here and there so it’s it’s a funny
answer that he always seems to be the
one that drifts very quickly so weird
dude but and then he’s going to win the
Canadian open and he’s going to be back
to like being sub 50 for a little two
week stint and then like back in the 70s
to pushing 100 number five on the road
to ball of PGA show for the model Maniac
we’ve got Tom hogi and Maverick McNeely
coming in as the fifth best ranked team
in the model Maniacs model third in the
alternate team part because why oh why
would you not want Tom hogi to hit the
irons and Maverick mcne to roll in the
putts that is going to be a fun fun
pairing to watch
because
Spencer I have a I think I have outout
on them as well I’ll double check while
you’re just chatting
about them but I needed I have it in the
Discord usually I have it written down
somewhere else but this is the world
we’re living in so yes I’ve got them at
40 to1 as well Tom hery Maverick mcney I
think that number from what I’ve seen
also has dropped and um the alternate
shot format in my model loves them I
think the best ball there’s some things
that I wish we could have a little bit
differently they’re they’re 12th in my
model though they just missed out on the
top 10 if you made them a little bit
more Elite in the best ball format like
this would push up I I just changed the
numbers as you were talking to see I I
can get this up into the top six or
seven if you just give them a couple
more birdies and I do think it’s
possible with the way that hogi can
strike his irons and the way that
McNeely can putt like I know that that’s
not what you’re asking for in beste ball
because you’re hitting your own ball
there but it still gives you an ability
be able to be aggressive with your irons
and aggressive with your putter if
that’s your strengths there yeah it
definitely gives you multiple outs you
know and and I think I’ve heard on I’ve
listened to a few shows already and
people saying you know there’s different
holes that require different skill sets
so sometimes having a differing skill
set to your partner you can attack a
hole
specifically tailored to your chipping
or your putting you know like you need
to be able to hold a good putt on that
hole you can’t necessarily knock it to
12 feet you know something like the I
don’t know but random random stuff
Spence let’s chat about your fifth
ranked guy I mean this is another team
that I would guarantee that you’re going
to hate guarantee like this will be
lower than the Hoy guard one I think uh
okay I don’t know what it’s about the
brothers in this tournament but the
Fitzpatrick Brothers yeah I I think they
I’m leaving them entirely alone I I’m
going to let them I’m going to let that
hatred bubble and Feud me and just I
think they’re going to play well but I
think Alex is getting a little bit too
much credit and I don’t know how much
birdies they can make as a team I I mean
I think that’s a fair sentiment there
and they came in the top 20 last year
which you’re going to need more than
that from where they’re priced and I
don’t love them to actually win this
contest but and you could make an
argument with Alex Fitzpatrick or with
Rasmus hoard that I may have gone in and
given both of those two golfers a little
bit too much credit um with the way that
I rearranged some of those numbers to
fit these teams but I generally think
they are a safe combination here I think
we get a made cut out of them what is
the upside I don’t know I I’m gonna say
they come top 20 though so uh don’t love
them to win the event I think the price
in the outright Market is rather bad
like they’re probably one of like the
worst outright prices to win but safety
markets and things of that nature I I
would not be trying to fade them in
matchups like I I think we’re going to
get four days out of them I I respect
that Ona entirely spin second it in fact
you know I think that’s exactly how to
approach them this week I think their
safety is cash
gamees that’s probably the way to go you
know for the if you are doing one of
those which by the way was the only
pretty much way I had one lineup Spencer
in the $5 single inry that had it had
sep it had ludvig it had um so many guys
inside the top 10 including Benny
an who shot 80 in round four brutal like
my only lineup that really was in
contention and it was like Seventh Place
Benny an shoots an
80 I wanted to cry the ball striking was
Elite also entering Sunday and then out
of nowhere it just implosion just he did
like he’s had a few of these rounds
lately where like they just get away
from him and it’s it’s starting to piss
me off but
anyway
number
four number four on the model Maniacs to
rankings we got Kara and Kurt kyama got
two guys that don’t quite know why I’ve
got them this high but the model likes
them so I’m going to let it be
Colin man just the guy’s just kind of
doing what he needs to do he’s just like
keeping his head above water Spencer you
know like last week’s performance was
not the stereotypical karow blueprint
how he got around that Golf Course
chipping and fighing his way around
Harbor toown it’s not what you want from
Colin Mara that doesn’t seem like a
sustainable trait so now you add the
volatility of Kur Kurama into the mix
and you never know maybe this is a good
pairing or maybe it’s not but out of the
10K options I’m I’m likely leaning
elsewhere so they are also number four
for me and I I’ll tell you why they
graded that high so when I talked about
trying to look at this and and whether
we’re talking alternate shot or best
ball we’ll talk alternate shot for a
second but when I ran these numbers for
alternate shot and I tried to figure out
what was the most ideal situation of who
should tee off on what holes on the par
threes fours and fives if they actually
do this in an ideal answer with it they
were number four as a team in projected
par three scoring they were number three
as a team in par four scoring and they
were number four as a team in par five
scoring so the weight it’s scoring in my
model an alternate shot really propelled
them and then I think what you talked
about with kyama it’s it’s this Boomer
bust potential that he brings to the mix
and and I actually think morawa is
pretty suited for both of those two
settings like I like him for alternate
shot because of his iron play and his
accuracy and then I also like him for
bestall for his ability to make birdies
in bunches so um this isn’t a situation
necessarily where morawa is going to
straight carry the team kittama in my
model is inside of the top 12 when I
just ran every single player looking and
that’s kind of what you get from these
last four teams morawa for me was fifth
kittama 12th uh when running it from
only an upside answer morawa was fifth
kittama was 15th I think it’s a really
nice pairing though here I I agree with
you when we’re talking about these
$10,000 plus golfers they’re probably
my I I mean I guess they are my least
favorite according to my model so I’ll
agree with you on that I would be
curious to see where ownership ends up
Landing because I do think that they
have actual win Equity at prices where
they entered and you don’t have to look
any further like Xander Klay are we’ll
call it 4 to one Rory and Lowry are you
know 878 to one theala zalatoris are
more in that 989 10 to one range morawa
and kyama open more in that like 16 18
to one range so if people don’t want to
play them and all of a sudden there’s a
leverage and and all of that being
created I think that that’s a different
route we could consider but it’s GNA be
hard to find legitimate ownership this
week it’s not going to be easy to put
together I don’t think no but at the
same time by the end of the week you’re
going to be looking at who’s at the top
of this leaderboard and
wonder how the hell are these guys
there you know like this is the one we
with with daro in the chat yeah that I
do think The Sweet Spot DFS thing is the
best because it pulls in the most random
options too because they out of all
weeks spener this is the week two
because you’ve got this birdie or better
situation where literally guys can make
12 birdies and shoot 12 on a par but
then you also make 12 birdies and you
shoot six on par you know like that’s
just sometimes how it unfolds and
unfortunately if you’re making birdies
on the same holes doesn’t matter you
know you need to be be making birdies on
opposite holes and there’s only so many
bires guys make a day you know so that’s
just how it goes but
um that’s why I was a little tentative
to go to the top of the board Spencer so
how let’s let’s when I get to when I get
to one of the names and they weren’t
even the number one team in my model um
the answer that you just talked about is
exactly why I like them and and we’ll
save that when we get there they will be
at the number two spot cool so do you
have you have Colin and Kurt number four
as well for me number three in the model
Maniac model we’ve got siah the gala and
will zorus grading out as second in the
alternate shots and third in the four
ball love this combination give me sah
of the tea give me sah on the greens
give me willly dialing in the irons baby
this combination Spencer is a Ridder cup
potential situation because both of
these guys are playing to ride a cup
capabilities abilities both of them are
absolute Savages under the gun they both
seem to play well together I I know they
in the FootJoy ad you know they’re the
they’re the primary you know focal point
in that ad even with the max Homer in
there I love it I wish they weren’t nine
or whatever the hell they are now that’s
the problem I would but I will be
rostering the [ __ ] out of them in DFS
you know I know they’re going to be
chalky I just I think their AB their
ability to just just put optimal holes
together after optimal hole like it’s
gon to be a fun it could go down in
flames as well but I’m looking forward
to watching them play So based off of
this answer and and maybe I’m I’m wrong
on this and we’ll see who the number one
team is because you said they were not
Xander and Klay I’m even more optimistic
now potentially about what my bet ended
up being and number three for me is also
zalatoris and theala if you think of the
ability in alternate shot of uh
zalatoris being able to hit the
approaches and theala being able to putt
that is mouthwatering stuff so sexy it’s
like a Frankenstein of golfers Spen it’s
like you know all right so you go you
give us your number two pairing because
I know I noticed I’ve been kind of
giving my play and reasoning so maybe
you can
give us your your option here because
they’re not they this is your outright
BET right this is my outright bet it’s
it’s Rory and Shane Lowry I got them at
8 and a half to one on bet 365 and you
talked about the answer of trying to
find pairings that are going to be able
to deviate from what the other ones
doing on specific holes and these two
did this I understand that like it’s
nobody wants to go down the Rory route
here’s the one answer I’ll give to this
like Xander won this tournament before
this is a player that nobody wants to
bet outright um there’s an ability for
some of these names like if Rory has
this High upside that always comes into
play and what is derailing him in most
of these contests is he puts together
these massive birdy streaks and then out
of nowhere he makes a triple bogey
that’s going to be helped in the best
ball situation as long as Lowry can
salvage a lot of those spots and that’s
where inside of my model they were the
number one team and it wasn’t even close
for alternate shot I I love their
ability to be able to play together but
also when you look at the best ball
situation there were so many answers of
why these two are ideal together some of
the longer par fours which would be
historically where Rory is going to
struggle Shane Lowry is number one in my
model in Long par four scoring so you
know I don’t really care what Rory does
in that spot I think Rory’s going to be
able to carry the team in best ball in
this par five scoring we’re going to
need to get a little bit better than
he’s been putting together as of recent
I think from a par three scoring answer
like Lowry popped in a lot of ways for
me across the board with it this to me
is just the most ideally suited
combination and I know Zander and kle
ended up being number one and that’s
mostly just when adding in some of the
recent form stuff and I added in a very
small bit of course history into the mix
like you’re not going to be able to get
it from every single player but it was
enough to push Klay and Xander together
just because of how well they were
suited together but by in this
combination like if you were to tell me
somebody wins by five plus shots here I
think it’s this group I could
legitimately see them getting to 35
under par I could see it spener too
because what is Shane Larry’s biggest
Bugaboo putting what’s Rory gonna be
doing he’s going to be doing all the
putting Shane Larry needs to be the iron
player in this format Rory needs to be
the driver and then when Rory’s hitting
those drives on those shorter holes
guess what Rory’s typically put his [ __ ]
at is wedges right Shane Larry is a
fantastic wedge player man exactly very
good inside the range Rory will
typically make double from then Shane
Lowry not the greatest long Ison player
Rory’s got he’s got a bit of that to him
too you know so it’s going to be a fun
situation to to see how these guys can
take care of business in in both
formats um it’s also too like if you
look at Lowry’s accuracy off the team
any there’s going to be some spots
you’re not going to always be able to
say Rory take the driver Lowry take the
iron like you’re going to have to switch
some of these spots like I do think for
them the even holes are going to be
better for them if they decide to go
that route because Rory can get the par
fivs uh Lowry can get some of these
longer holes of these par fours and I
think that’s just a better way to where
Rory is inside the top 10 of my model
and that’s that’s what’s the interesting
part of it is they could very easily
decide to switch that and more into like
the answers that you were talking about
for most of these other teams I just
think for this particular
Duo you give Rory the even number holes
here an alternate shot I I legitimately
think they are going to go nuclear dude
it’s going to happen and hopefully
everyone just freaks out about how bad
Shane Larry’s puted the last two weeks
Rory’s going to kick his ass into shape
and say hey dude none of this bull
nonsense that you’ve been doing on these
I’m not losing 14 Strokes in two weeks
with you on my team like no more missing
those those four Footers for the most
part though we’re g to have we’re going
to see Rory doing most of the putting in
the alternate and you know then you get
the best ball a four-footer likely
should not be the make or breaking
situation in that pairing if it is
they’re not playing well enough to you
know to Warrant concern so Zack Wilson I
now no longer officially own a jersey
that’s on the team again so I’ll have to
purchase a New Jersey the lindu Jersey
going strong I’m still on the team so
shout out to Zack Wilson going to the
Broncos I wish you the best of luck
there my friend um the Jets turn out
another quarterback all right
Spencer let’s get let’s get to my number
one ranking here it’s obviously Rory and
Shane I’ll jump to my number two and
because they’re number two and your you
have them as number one you typically
run yours from a longer term I’ve
derived my off the te numbers just from
this year I’ve derived my Approach
numbers from the last 12 months I’ve
derived my putting from a spike putting
over the last 100 rounds I’m taking in
the 75th percentile of putting for just
I’m looking for your upside putting
performances if your up if your best
putting performance is gaining you like
one stroke I’m not looking for that you
know I’m looking for guys like sahit
Spike putting is 1.79 Strokes gains you
know like that excites me you know like
give me your best week putting that’s
what it’s going to be so over the last
little while Patrick Cy Spike putting
number Spencer is 1.13 over his last 100
rounds the putter has just like I’m I
think they’re going to come in Ultra
chalk obviously yeah I don’t know you
know like as well as xand is playing he
let me down last week you know with that
was a really mediocre performance from
him they they vibed together pretty well
they never dominated at the rder cup
like they typically do you know they’ve
typically just been Unbreak Xander just
you know missing five Footers left and
right I understand how they
theoretically fit you but recently
they’ve had some deficiencies
particularly on kley side of things so
um he’s he’s dragging them down for me I
don’t know what what you’re seeing there
so there there are so many metrics and
if they put themselves in in the optimal
situation we can we can we can find
reasons why it makes sense I agree with
you though like Klay for me is 65th in
projected part three scoring and this is
just would be assuming that he’s the one
hitting every single shot here which is
not going to be the case but I I still
think it’s noteworthy to throw out there
65th in this field in weighted par three
scoring he’s outside of the top 90 in
short par four scoring from both 350 to
400 and from 400 to 450 a lot of the
metrics for me are going in the wrong
direction I understand they’re number
one in my model and I I don’t think I
ever get that big of a discrepancy at
the top of the board and you know like
they’re one for me they’re two for you
you’re not going to really find them any
lower than that but I think for DFS I do
want to aggressively attack Rory and
Lowry for all the reasons even in the
chat that’s being talked about it’s like
we don’t want Rory you know we that we
can’t go back to Rory and I’m always
trying to go the opposite route of
everybody else in these spots and I I do
think Xander and and Klay are going to
be and mostly it’s going to be even
worse now because you could make an
argument that Xander let me down to I
was super aggressive on Xander last week
but out of nowhere can’t lay pops set
the RBC like he does every single year
and now we’re back entering this
tournament and anybody who would have
been out because of Xander or Klay now
you’ve gotten the performance that you
want Klay here so just when they thought
I was
out I I just think they’re going to be
too popular Byron so um for me I I would
rather play regardless of them being
number one in my model I’d rather play
Rory and uh low I would rather play
theala and zalatoris and I would make an
argument that I’d probably rather play
morawa and kyama like if it’s one two
three and four at the very top of the
board and like the ironic thing about
that is it’s I have it in the exact
order that DraftKings put together but
there’s not really that big of a
discrepancy between any of those four
teams like my model does not think Klay
and Xander should be 4 to one in this
field it had them much closer to
everybody else and there was a little
bit of gap between those two Rory and
Lowry and the next tier but we’re still
talking about only a handful of points
from an outright betting answer there so
um I just think that the ownership is
going to be super indicative of what’s
the proper way to go because um for me I
I agree with you I think this is going
to be chalk all day at the very top with
those two I think the DFS price is or
albe it still incorrect closer to fair
market Price than the outright Market if
if we saying that I feel like both could
come closer together I would say it
would be fair for them to be priced at
118 maybe 12 in this field you know
based off what we’ve seen and maybe
priced in the 7621 range potentially you
know I think for the the outright Market
Spencer so you know there’s where you
can find Value you got to take the value
and I would imagine the value is is
there you know in the DFS salary at 112
because we had Scotty Sheffer 133 and
plus 400 you know these guys are
basically the same odds and $22,000
cheaper you
know you you understand where we going
there right like how does that translate
you know it doesn’t so yeah I mean the
translation makes absolutely no sense I
and that’s why they’re going to be just
supremely or Uber popular because of
that like it and it and I don’t dislike
them I
I I don’t think you can’t be number one
in my model and I’m going to come on a
show and say that they’re a terrible
Play It’s the unfortunately it’s the
Scotty shuffler just they’re not Scotty
shuffler answer that we’ve been having
all these weeks to where uh they’re the
number one players for a reason in a
model at least in my model they’re
number two for you we’ll call it that
the same thing for the most part there
but everybody’s playing them and from a
game theory that’s not necessarily when
I want to go in this spot with kley and
Xander okay so just to confirm how we
feeling if you were to bet someone for
top five same odds exactly don’t don’t
have differing odds who would you say of
the 10K options you’d bet for the top
five as your only
option I have the same odds for every
single
team I mean I’ll take Xander and Klay
based off that that’s the thing it’s
like I’m just trying to prove to people
that were listening and thinking we hate
these guys
no we don’t it’s just DFS you know like
you we we hate them because you love
them you know that’s the reason why you
know like it’s it’s because they popular
in DFS that that’s why we kind of trying
to find holes to poke in these guys
despite them ranking so highly you know
we know that they’re good golfers why
are they going to suck this week and
what is the likelihood it’s going to
happen so that’s all we’re trying to do
over here we have a few other outrights
to run through for myself I don’t know
how many more you have Spencer that’s it
for me okay um so I’ll run run through a
few of mine and we can kind of just get
through that part of the board as we as
we get to my guys you know kind of just
go from there jump away from ranking our
that was that’s like our first official
model Kombat episode of the RO balla PGA
show which I thoroughly enjoyed yeah we
were very similar in the top four to
just switch who we had at the very top
so a couple minor differences but for
the most part like I guess I had a few
names that were much lower on yours but
I don’t think you had anybody in mind
that was outside of the top 16 yeah yeah
yeah and it’s it’s kind of cool to see
that we can put something together that
kind of you know collaborates and and
you know syncs up so I’ll go with my
next set of dudes Bo Hustler and Sam
Ryder so now I’m I’m looking at these
odds and things I’m seeing a 75 to1 over
there at my bet
365 I think that’s just like a really
good number because I’m not seeing like
a lot of these numbers aren’t quite
matching up to what the Market’s showing
so if you do have access to bet 365 you
have to pay for the top three and I
think that’s what they’re probably
charging you for with that nice you know
outright odds but still it gives you
some really good high upside security if
you’re looking for for that so I’m sick
and tired of just finishing second so
I’m going to go with Ryan Fox and gck
higo it’s a South African Australian
combination which is like made in hell
you know we’re not we’re not a fan of
those kind of things but um if Mom and
Dad find out they kicked out the house
but we would tell them and bet them at
100 to one so so they both volatile
dudes you know Ryan Fox dude out of
nowhere playing terrible golf top of the
leader board for the first two days of
Augusta like yeah totally saw that
coming you know gck kigo it’s gonna show
up at some point so I love how these two
can get along they must enjoy playing
together since they are and they you
know we’ve got this nationality clash as
always so what’s your take on foxy and
higo fox and higo are 33rd in my model
um I couldn’t get there at the price I I
do want to talk a little bit about the
Hustler play that you mentioned and oh
yes I don’t have a wager on this yet and
this is this is bad news doing it live
on a show to move the number before I’ve
officially locked it in but uh give me
your thoughts before we talk about
hosler on Billy horel and Tyson
Alexander I feel like B Billy’s the
ultimate hype guy right so like whatever
Tyson
stats entering the week R just like
double them you know like he’s just
going to be played with Billy Hall um
buddy you know like he’s gonna be doing
it just fine so I don’t know I I want to
say not optimistic especially coming off
a win for Billy and also Tyson Alexander
I don’t know what he’s really done you
know I don’t think he ain’t no Sam Burns
so
I’ll I I have some worries about the
like the exact answer that you just said
there but my model liked and we’ll just
leave it at this B Hustler and Sam Ryder
against them in a
matchup
yes I like
it what what I guess minus one minus 110
you can go find it in the space uh don’t
want everybody hitting it and it moves
on us before I actually get a chance to
put itus 110 about to beus 130 thank you
for tuning in to the RO B PJ show we’ll
see you guys next week
no minus 110 I love it you know I’ve
obviously got bow and them ranked 16th
in my model kind of actually shine in
the 19th yeah they shine in the best
ball situation a little more like 20
spots better 33rd alternate 13th in best
ball which you know they both make tons
and tons of birdies and tons and tons of
blunders some other options that I want
to mention the upan Kevin Yu and CT pan
just an electric combination of golfers
at 125 to1
CT pans popped up at the of the
leaderboard at some point in the last
few months so has Kevin you one can Chip
and Putt the other one Cann not you know
like I’ll call CT a better chipper than
he is but CT is going to bring the short
game Kevin’s gon to bring dominant ball
striking off the te like incredible like
long iron player and and just in general
off the tea Kevin Yu is just so good
like he’s he’s Kevin Hues gained more
Strokes off the tea than Rory M this
year
right or at least oh that’s that’s
upside that’s top 75% um I believe so
whatever that is it’s yeah that’s the
75th percentile so Kevin ‘s 75th
percentile of the te is actually better
than Rory mroy fun fact there for you so
that show the upside that he has yeah I
was just going to say if you look at the
off the te numbers in my model and this
is being stretched from a little longer
duration for Rory where things are
getting moved like he’s zer Point Rory
0.07 Strokes better off the T than Kevin
Y and I think all the names that you’re
talking about like every single team
that you have rattled off maybe outside
of fox and higo for me just because I
I’ve given up on Fox I can’t go down
that route with him but I think all
these other combinations like you and
pan are inside the top 20 of my model
these are the kind of names where this
is like the bottom end of the options
that I think have a legitimate chance to
win I think when you’re going deeper
than this you’re throwing too far of
darts and
these are interesting numbers that
you’ve gotten like that Mitchell price
at 75 to1 is super intriguing but I do
think that inside of our models we’ll
just call it like I do think the players
or the team’s GNA probably have to rank
in the top 20 to win this thing um it’s
at least historically what has happened
inside of my model and our numbers seem
to be pretty similar in most of these
spots so I I definitely think you’re on
like the bottom end range of the options
that I do like this tournament uh at
these heightened numbers if you want to
throw darts down the board it’s just
when I go to the very top and I take
Rory and Lowry at eight and a half to
one and then I also take a 40 to1 ticket
on Taylor and hadwin which the only
thing that I worry about with that
pairing is I’m a little bit worried that
hadwin might end up getting like PTSD on
the green standing there next to Nick
Taylor that he’s gonna get
tackled I think it’s going to be for one
of the most epic celebrations when they
win Spencer imagine that’s can finally
celebrate together I think that’s like
what Adam’s been wanting to do ever
since it’s just like blow some champagne
down Nick’s like throat and it’s it just
turned out into a getting rugby tackled
by a 300 pound security guard from
Canada you know like not ideal so
hopefully that that um that kind of
narrative changes for them going into
this week I think it’ll be fun Spen so
let’s um go away from the analytics and
the the statistically inclined takes and
for the last five minutes yeah Spencer
just go down the list yeah and say some
some names that you just
like excited to like see play together
just a random like you know just who who
surprised you as a team like okay yeah
let’s do this the most surprising team
that you saw name wise like we was like
I did not even know those guys were on
speaking terms and they may not be but
they might be paired up together
and I know that’s you know a tough
question which never we ever prepped for
but there’s there’s definitely some
interesting ones in you uh I mean I
would not think that Jimmy stinger and
Adrien Dumont uh would be a partnership
together that’s obviously like a random
one to talk about I’m scrolling through
names right now like I a lot of these
names would be what you would expect for
the most part like you at least have
some sort of country partnership
or I guess I mean a weird one to me
would be Daniel burger and Victor Perez
yeah just I don’t know what the paring
is there but where did that come from
another one that had me quite giggling
was Ryan Palmer continuing to just go
for the biggest swing ever guy goes for
like John ramy’s partner like he does
not hang back goes for the ex Ridder Cup
captain you know like I you got to just
appreciate Ryan Palmer just not leaving
anything on the bench just really
sending the best invite he possibly
could to to each option so that’s
somebody I think is interesting um
Vincent Norman and H
compo interesting combination but also
statistically they grade out rather
nicely for me you know 33rd I’m a big
fan of those two guys just from a actual
you know going back to speaking about
golfers golfers but they they very it’s
like sugar and spice between those two
it’s a very dynamic duo you know
youngster versus a a veteran so to speak
yeah list and Norland are kind of
interesting too I I wouldn’t think that
they would be together um are are there
any
names let’s just say good or bad on this
answer that you think are severely
underrated pricewise whether that’s
outright betting or DFS or
overrated yeah I will say we’ve got
Dylan who and Justin lower rank out as
my 15th best option and they’re $7,400 I
would say they’re going to pop up as
some extreme value for me Justin low is
a very underrated long Ison player I
would I think or no it’s it’s changed to
him now but they gr out nicely in a
combination of ways um for me what about
you I’ve just realized at this point
that I apparently have the wrong
partnership um go to DraftKings just for
the hell of it and Justin lower is
partnered with Harry Hall and Dylan woo
I’ve got Harry Hall with Scott
piery I think you’re right because the
price tags make sense on that so I those
two got flipped in my model somehow I
guess with just the way that they were
put in the space because I think even
piery no I think piery got pulled off
the board altogether DraftKings probably
made a mess of that when I pulled
it I know that CU you can bet right now
you can bet Justin low with Dylan woo at
80 to1 you can bet him at 8 to1 with
Harry Hall
also just put him out there no matter
who his Partners I want him on the field
coach that’s where we going over here um
yeah I don’t I don’t mind him I don’t
mind him the mil goats awesome guys by
the way by the way AK what’s up brother
um final speaking of goats arson e goat
and Chris gup another very intriguing
partnership to me $7,900 popped up in
the top 20 in my model
striking flip you know yeah um my
internet’s doing they fun they are a fun
tandem they’re a fun tandem together
that I I I think have some similarities
from what we saw last year with Riley
and Hardy to where this could be a very
ideal spot for them to put the pieces
together as a team here so uh if inside
the top 15 of my model is kind of right
in that wheelhouse territory that I’m
looking for when I was trying to either
value for DraftKings and they’re
probably one of my favorite values on
the board for that reason but if you
want to get like gross in this board I
do think that there are options to
consider like mac Meisner and Austin
Smotherman graded well for me uh that
was a fringe top 25 team I don’t know if
I trust the data but Hayden Springer and
Tom Whitney were like a friend top 30
team for me there’s a lot of
combinations like that that could find
Value and then uh the other one would be
mattye Schmid and Alex SMY ended up
grading inside of the and I guess also
Carson young and Ben Martin like those
were all top 30 teams for me so um some
of them are better than others when
we’re talking actual upside there and
most of those are low $7,000 golfers for
the most part you do get a little bit
lower on a few of those names but that’s
kind of the the random shots I’ll be
taking of players that I think that can
make the cut with their Partners but you
know it’s top 33s and ties that are
making it so it’s kind of you’re right
in the middle there of you’re a fringe
cut maker to begin with yeah it’s it’s
the range where it gets dicey one or two
more names Spencer JJ spawn and Hayden
Buckley
$6,600 they they seem to work out nicely
for me didn’t grade out the greatest
49th in my model but Cameron Champ and
MJ Duffy team rank for alternate shot
26th overall rank 49th you know their
four ball option funnily enough you they
could really piece it together cam champ
off the tea MJ Duffy give him give him
the long irons and the putting you know
I think that’s that’s how it it boils
out for those two guys we’ll see how it
happens but yeah the the teams
that I mean we’ll call these like the
borderline cut makers for the most part
but these were the options for me that
as a tandem were the most underpriced I
think it’s interesting and it’s so most
of these names I’ve already talked about
but uh Co and Cochran you know take that
for what it’s worth there it’s limited
data with Cochran I do think they can
make a weekend I don’t know what their
upside would be from there so take that
with a grain of salt Meisner and
Smotherman potger and Lawrence uh
Whitney and Springer I thought sang Moon
Bay and Sh Kim they were 34th overall
for me kind of right in that mix there
uh spawn and Buckley as you mentioned
and then uh SMY Schmid and Martin and
young like those were all top 30 players
for the most part yeah and schoy and
Schmid schoy Schmid they they’re a fun
sharing to go along with there so very
quickly on on the opposite end of that
answer who are some of the overrated
teams for you then okay give me two
seconds
yeah um some names that didn’t quite
make the according to my my model thrist
and Alder po not necessarily I’ve got
high hopes for them but they don’t grade
out well I think that’s a Vibe situation
um coocha and Steve Stricker that’s my
most overrated one they’re not playing
well like coocha in particular not
playing good golf Daniel burger and
Victor Perez burer you know at any given
moment could be you know another top 10
golfer in the world but currently not
quite doing that and then the Billy Hall
Tyson Alexander he he’s pretty close to
the Matt Fitzpatrick and Alex
Fitzpatrick they the first n9k option to
show up as I’m going down you know from
the bottom of my board up so that’s
that’s basically it Bryce got and SE
ster $9,000 as
well Bry gone I mean SE I get but like
Bryce gone net being a th000 $9,000 is
just what world are we living in you
yeah they’re they’re too expensive I I
don’t necessarily think they are AG Greg
justly priced like they probably should
be in the low eights low eights yeah
nine I think just n he need to be 8999
you know like I think that would I would
have been okay with that yeah for me
it’s it’s coocher and Stricker were the
most overrated horel and
Alexander
um Ry and trainer list and
norlander apparently this Justin low and
Harry Hall thing doesn’t exist so we’ll
throw them we’ll throw them out the mix
here um I think if you’re looking for
somebody for me that would be more in
that answer of what you were talking
about of like $88,000 and up that really
popped put and high Smith at 8,000 I did
not love
them I’ve I’m always you know that’s
going to be a putam problem versus a
high I like Joe High Smith quite a lot
actually but puam yeah that makes what
do they rank in your model I don’t know
um let me find them because I don’t have
a terrible grade for them like it’s not
like we’re talking about a team that’s
inside of they’re inside the top half
even if they barely make it 25th in my
model they’re 39th for me so I’m lower
on you on them than you are yeah yeah so
you know but it’s mainly got to do with
some high Smith love there i’ imagine um
my model typically likes his stuff no
it’s probably all puam yep it’s all puam
I don’t even know what’s going on in my
own model Spencer it’s all putam for me
too um that’s kind of what saved the
team like from an overall rank putham
was 39th High Smith was
115th yeah yeah but I do think heith has
got what it takes to do on the I mean he
was hanging around at Mexico and he just
hit a really bad shot on all n on the
final round you know like he was in the
mix there I I think he’s going to have
his
week do you have a few minutes to chat
about your model for your
draft oh draft this week yeah we we can
talk about that yeah I bet Brock Bowers
to be picked by the Jets at plus 150 and
that’s my only bet so far so chat about
where you where you’ve gone in the
betting Market I know you’ve released
your your article about your draft and
how you’re going to attack it there so
let’s chat about that for a second yeah
a lot of the things that I released in
that article and that was I don’t know a
month ago at this point um moved in a
positive direction which is is always
nice there’s I think there’s some
interesting spots where there’s still
value to be found like I took Buffalo to
take a wide receiver before they traded
Diggs and that number has just been
obliterated that’s not going to help
anybody out it’s now you do have this
really interesting Market at the very
top because Caleb’s going to go one I
think from there a lot of it
is want to say hearsay because the
commanders aren’t actually tipping their
hand of what they’re going to do and and
I think anybody who’s close to the
situation keeps believing that the pick
is going to be jayen
Daniels I kind of been a believer that
any time that these odds keep drifting
out until I hear something different
into this like plus 300 range for Drake
May or even JJ McCarthy now is entering
the mix and I could go on and on about
JJ McCarthy because C and I were talking
about this on uh Twitter the other day
and I know he thinks JJ McCarthy is
overrated I think JJ McCarthy is going
to thrive in the NFL and I think he’s a
legitimate top five pick and you know if
he can go to the right situation you put
him in Minnesota like that is that is
going to that’ll give me all the feels
like I’m all in I’m buying the J J
McCarthy Jersey I’m going to invest all
my money in sports cards for him to be
like the biggest quarterback in the
league at that point but uh my model
Lov ex that’s that’s just a perfect
combination there every single year I
build a model and I’ll see if I can
bring it up as I’m giving this answer
right now but I’ve done it since
200 uh 20 and I’ve looked at every
single quarterback class and I’ve
compared them against each other the
really interesting thing about this
group is you’re obviously going to have
the strength of last year with CJ strad
and my model liked Anthony Richardson
wasn’t that high on Bryce young at the
end of the day but everybody wants to
point to that lence class where you have
unfortunately Zack Wilson Trey Lance
Justin Fields all those names they’re
underachieve M Jones like all those
names went in the wrong direction but
what’s really interesting about this
draft if you take the big four of Caleb
Jaden Daniels um May and McCarthy they
all grade better than every single
quarterback that I have had in that
Lawrence draft class now number one for
me is Caleb Williams uh of all those
draft classes number two is CJ stoud so
that kind of puts in perspective what my
model thinks there I probably had a
blind spot that came into play a little
bit with Justin Fields where my model
really liked him there but outside of
that it’s like JJ McCarthy jayen Daniels
all these quarterbacks are grading
inside of the top 10 names for me over
the past four years where when you look
at Zack Wilson and Trey Lance and M
Jones they’re all outside of the top 10
of these last couple draft classes so I
know everybody’s getting worried off by
like the quarterback position is really
difficult to draft and it is at the end
of the day but this to me is an elite
draft class that we’re going to look
back and we’re gonna find I don’t think
everybody’s G to necessarily pop like
you have some concerns with Jaden
Daniels when it comes to his pressure to
sack ratio if you compare him to all the
quarterbacks that are in that mix there
almost all of them have failed that’s a
concern if you look at Drake May it’s
this Boomer bus profile that he puts in
to the mix for him to where he has the
Deep throws that he can excel at and
he’s a big play artist but he doesn’t
necessarily hit the shorter stuff and
then I think McCarthy is just a really
safe good quarterback that’s going to
thrive in the right system I’m hoping
that he lands anywhere that’s not New
England but I I think even the New
England spot like as bad as things look
on the surface it will improve over time
like for what you see right now isn’t
always what you get a couple years down
the road it’s just the problem is with
the quarterback you kind of need to have
the pieces around you because if you
look at Justin Fields I don’t know if
the Bears necessarily even thought that
Fields wasn’t the answer and that’s why
this took so long but at a certain point
you have to reset the clock because
you’re not going to pay Justin Fields
100 plus million dollars when you don’t
know if he’s the answer you’d rather
just say I don’t know if he’s the answer
he might have been the answer but let’s
reset the clock now and and all of a
sudden give Caleb a chance with riddle
targets so you don’t want to run your
quarterback in that position so that’s
like the only concern about whoever ends
up in New England and for me the biggest
concern would probably be Drake may just
because I think that if somebody face
plants it’s probably him but it’s gonna
be a really fun draft Byron like there’s
so many question marks in that top
10 it is GNA be so fun Spence because we
we’ve chatted about this off off air you
know after our show once or twice and I
figured we’d do it now because why why
not make some content out of it because
it’s always interesting and we we
mentioned last time we chatted about
Atlanta and how they’ve like reverse
engineered the draft like over a
two-year period go big bols the wall on
all positional pieces and key portions
of the of the team then get the QB the
following year you know and
I interesting concept right it’s for all
those answers that we just talked about
when you can have the pieces in place
and then your star position quote
unquote the one that’s actually going to
be leading your team when you can have
them on in in in specifically here I
know Atlanta’s a little bit of a
different situation because they paid
Kirk the money but if you can actually
get a rookie in that spot like Caleb or
you know you put JJ McCarthy potentially
in that spot with Minnesota where there
are pieces around there like that’s
where the sky the limit because you’re
paying your quarterback rookie salary
albeit top 10 sort of money but you
don’t you’re not getting stuck into that
Patrick Mahomes contract because even
still like Mahomes keeps restructuring
his deal over and over again to try to
keep pieces and bring people in and at
some point you run into that problem
there yeah that’s the thing dude and
like what we’ve seen with Herbert and
what they could have done and just
having burnt that entire contract
through is just malpractice you know
that’s unfortunately you know thoughts
and prayers with Jeff fineberg out there
but I’m also you know Jets fan so I can
sympathize empathize whatever it’s
called um like you mentioned it’s going
to get better in a few years but just
for me it’s decades you know I think 13
years is it’s been 13 years for me so
Spencer who would you say needs to be
taken by the Jets at number 10 here’s
what I think here’s I I like Brock
here’s what I think that the Jets should
do and and I think Brock works fine I
I’m a little bit concerned and we talked
about this there is a realistic scenario
here to where let’s just say Caleb goes
one it doesn’t really matter who goes
two and three let’s just say Jaden
Daniels the betting Market has him to
the commanders Patriots take Drake May
at three uh let’s say at
four let’s just say the Vikings trade up
they they take JJ there we get the five
the Chargers end up taking Harrison six
they take a wide receiver whether it’s
adun or neighbors so now all of a sudden
you have two wide receivers off the
board you have one wide receiver left
which is either going to be neighbors or
adun and you’re going to have a spot
where Bowers is still there I am
concerned that the seventh and eighth
and even the ninth picks are prime trade
candidates to where somebody could move
up to seven to grab one of those
remaining wide receivers if that doesn’t
happen somebody could move up to eight
to grab one of those wide receivers and
at nine I kind of think the Indianapolis
Colts are very Live Like A Team like
that it doesn’t have to be them to trade
up to nine the Bears want to create
extra and get extra assets they move
back in the draft they take somebody
like a Jared verse or Byron Murphy the
the Colts move up to ninth and take
Bowers and there’s a real scenario that
could come into play Byron where all
three wide receivers and Brock Bowers
are off the board if I’m the Jets I am
trying to find a way to trade up to
either seven or eight uh if you can get
up to seven all the better with it to
secure your guy but I I kind of have a
feeling that
even though the market disagrees if you
look at the giants’ team and if their
decision ends up being either Odun or
neighbors I kind of think Odun fits the
Giants better I would not be shocked if
neighbors ends up falling to seven or
eight I think the Jets should move up
and get neighbors neighbors and put it
in a position where you have either ad
dun or neighbors you can have Alan lzard
you can have Garrett Wilson and you just
and you have Bree Hall in the back field
and you just give Rogers every ability
to fire there yeah because it has to be
this I don’t care about next year you
know like it’s so weird going into a
draft without any future Jets
quarterback but and we’re not going to
draft one that’s the crazy part you know
it’s like the Jets have no future at
quarterback yet we’re not even going to
touch that position this week and it’s
just it’s kind of fun because usually
we’re not in that spot and I think
adding a a instant playmaker is exactly
how we have to go spend so uh don’t see
our guy jumping up because he mentioned
in his Presser we’ got 10 guys we like
so I you they could take I mean I guess
like worst case scenario that you could
bolster that offensive line um it’s
honestly it’s an impact position because
I doubt the Five Guys we fixed over the
offseason are standing when when we try
and make a Super Bowl run or a playoff
run should I say so it’s going to be a
very tough situation there but who’s
whose position do you most fancy Spencer
in the draft like if you were a team
that you were a a GM that would just
show up and say okay you’ve got all 32
teams to pick who would you want to go
to well I I mean I love the position
that the Bears are in like if if I was
Chicago I would do kind of a very
similar thing of what I just said for
the Jets like I would take Caleb
Williams one and I would find a way to
even go more robust with like I know you
have DJ Moore and Keenan Allen now that
throw to but if you could go up and get
a Marvin Harrison or one of these wide
receivers and secure them I mean you’re
just setting Caleb Williams up for so
much success moving forward and um if
the Vikings can play their cards
correctly I I’m a little bit worried of
what that price is going to end up being
just because the wide receivers are so
good in this class and teams are going
to Value those positions a little bit
more and you know if the Vikings all of
a sudden find themselves in a position
to where I don’t know you have to trade
three first round picks or I mean at
some point are you just jeopardizing
your future way too much but you can’t
enter the season with darnold as your
starting quarterback like you know these
are quarterbacks of the jet night that
we we can talk about and I don’t think I
don’t think darnold is as bad as public
perception necessarily is with him um
like I prefer him to Zack Wilson if
directly comparing um I think he’s a guy
who can go in and I mean I even thought
like if something happen happened to
Brock py darnold was a guy that could
play that system but it’s also that’s
the answer play the system there like I
don’t know if that’s a guy that you’re
relying on week in and week out but I I
I yeah I mean I agree with daro like the
Vikings are in a very good spot
regardless of what they do and and I
think that this is a really intriguing
draft for them to where um we’ll see
though yeah it’s gonna be fun man
um any final bits that you want to po
pop out there that you’ve your favorite
bit of the
draft I think unfortunately everything
is probably yeah probably taken away at
this point
um there was there was a mistake that uh
Circa made when prices open where they
put Jon Newton over under at 18 and a
half and uh that thing got steamed up
within 24 hours up to like he’s like a
fringe first rounder now so that was and
I I mean you could you could convince me
one way or another if he’ll go in round
one but that was a great spot um you
know the problem is when you get this
late like unless you have inside
information to this most of the times
you run into these spots to where it’s
hard to find Value I guess for me maybe
like Odun to the Giants would be
something that still has value on the
board if you’re trying to get away from
that neighbors
narrative um how many quarterbacks go in
round one over four and a half under
four and a half probably like B Nicks
and Michael penck are not historical
firstr quarterbacks they’re kind of that
prototypical name that slips into the
second that teams don’t necessarily
highly covet and my model did not love
either one of them which is I think
somebody is going to swing I’ll say on
penx um if you look at the over under of
the markets for penck like I think he’s
like minus at some of the sharper books
minus 175 to minus 200 to be under pick
32 and a half so like it’s kind of
telling you that it thinks somebody’s
going to take like trade into that end
back part of the first and grab them
it’s over four and a half minus 270 so
if you’re gonna be betting that you
might as well just bet penx because if
you feel like that’s the guy that’s
gonna tip the charts I mean I guess
Nicks here’s the problem is to me the
most suited team that would take Nicks
would probably be the Broncos
the Broncos if they take them at TW they
don’t have picks outside of that 12 pick
like you’re gonna have to accumulate
something so the draft is wonky is the
problem and and there’s always the
potential that Denver trads from 12th to
throw a number out there whatever in the
mid to late 20s and sure like I don’t
know if Buffalo necessarily has the
resources to move up to 12 but uh let’s
say buffalo and I don’t think they need
to move up that far but like Buffalo
moves up for Brian Thomas Jr or whatever
and all of a sudden the Broncos go all
the way back well now you’re sitting
there without a bone Nicks ticket and
you feel gross because they’ve probably
moved that far back to try to grab Nicks
although historically when you look at
these situations Byron teams usually
select their quarterback nobody wants to
risk losing their man by trading back
this might be one of those unique spots
where the Broncos have no draft assets
they actually want to try to get some
extra draft assets and there’s really no
market for bone Knicks outside of a
couple of teams like at least with
to me I don’t think the Raiders are
taking him at 13 but like the Raiders
have some Intrigue I think uh Seattle if
you want to talk about him staying in
Washington there um you could convince
me like the Rams maybe if you think
Stafford’s you know on his last legs
there there’s options I don’t know what
Falcons have for a second round pick but
like if they have the ability to move
into the first round I don’t think that
that’s necessarily the route you want to
take when by the like pennx is already
an older quarterback to begin with and I
don’t know if you want cousins through
the duration all of a sudden you have p
28 years old but there there are options
of like additional teams that make more
sense to me and and I think maybe the
the one that nobody talks about that
maybe still has legs to it everybody
just wants to pencil the Vikings in to
trade up okay and I think it’s very
likely that that’s the route that we end
up going there and we find a trade but
sometimes things don’t happen and what
if we find ourselves in a position to
where let’s just say hypothetically that
the top three quarterbacks go which
whoever those are we’ll just say for the
sake of this example here Caleb goes one
uh Jaden goes two Drake goes three and
then what if the Giants actually are in
the position to take a quarterback and
they trade and the Cardinals go we
really like Malik neighbors we would
rather move back we’ll grab him at six
we’ll let the Giants move up and the
Giants now take McCarthy and the Vikings
have been completely aced out of this
game and I don’t know I mean they have
picks they have two first round picks at
11 and 23 are one of those picks pennic
like probably pretty likely good chance
that it would be so I think something’s
going to happen that’s outside of what
everybody’s predicting I don’t know if
that’s the answer there but there’s a
lot of spots where that fifth
quarterback can potentially fit into the
mix so I I agree with the market and
unfortunately if you look at that a
couple weeks ago that’s not where that
number was like that that price has just
steadily been climbing for all those
reasons dude yeah the some of the juice
on these props is like- 230 and it’s
there’s some fat numbers out there man-
270 for the over four and a half there
is ridiculous but it makes sense you
know they just don’t want you to bet it
so awesome stuff Spence little NFL draft
to the back end of the Zurich Classic
over there let’s have ourselves an
awesome week this is the RO balla PGA
show brought to you by Roa baller me the
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Bola PGA side of things Spence anything
else you need to mention to the people
no I I it’s you know like we said I
think from an outright Outlook we
probably have a better tournament than
most of these weeks and that’s not just
because Scotty’s not here uh the hold
percentage is a little bit reduced
compared to most weeks I thought there
were there’s a potential to find some
value there it’s a fun tournament at the
end of the day um wouldn’t go breaking
my bankroll getting down a bunch of
plays but I I do think there are
advantages that can be found and for me
it probably stems from what you talked
about early in the show where there’s
going to be the potential with the way
that we’ve built our models and the way
that we’re looking at this look at in
tournament betting on some of these days
there’s going to be alternate shop
formats where pricing is going to be off
there’s going to be more of a potential
for books to make mistakes in my opinion
and anytime we have that answer it’s
always fingers crossed that the sports
books don’t take the stance of here’s
five matchup and we’re not going to give
you an entire board because we don’t
want to get caught and that sometimes
happens but if if they don’t go that
route and we actually have some bets to
talk about it we might be able to get a
little bit more exposure down than a lot
of people that just look at this
tournament and say I want no part of it
yeah and that’s the thing Spence it’s
you dive into the deep end of this and
if you get yourself engulfed there’s an
edge to be had and we believe we can
provide that to you over here at the RO
Bol PGA show and over at rool pga.com
please don’t forget to hit the like
button thank you daro for mentioning
that on the way out Spence as always
thank you so much for an awesome show
once again could not keep it under the
hour mark once again but hey that’s
becoming our Jam we’ll catch you guys
next Monday at 9:30 Eastern for the RO
balla PGA show next week peace
2 Comments
You guys are way too smart to bet on the NFL draft! If you think any team is telling the truth on who they’re gonna take then you haven’t not followed the draft at all. Nobody is telling the truth and they’re all intentionally lying to the media.
Drop your favorite Zurich Classic team in the comments!