Action Network contributor and golf betting expert Tony Sartori joins Golf Digest’s Andy Lack to discuss their favorite golf bets for this year’s Houston Open on the Links and Locks podcast presented by bet365. Click here for more golf picks: bit.ly/GolfAction
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00:00 – Introduction
00:26 – bet365 Promo
01:15 – Wyndham Clark
02:52 – Si Woo Kim
04:57 – Stephan Jaeger
06:04 – Keith Mitchell
07:05 – Alex Noren
09:15 – Luke List
10:46 – Billy Horschel
11:33 – Joel Dahmen
12:45 – Victor Perez
13:44 – Joseph Bramlett
14:38 – Rafael Campos
15:26 – Andrew Novak
16:31 – Aaron Rai
17:21 – Davis Thompson
18:30 – Scottie Scheffler
21:43 – bet365 Promo
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#AuthorTonySartori #BlueWireVideo
Welcome to links and locks action Network’s golf betting podcast presented by bet 365 I’m your host Andy wack and I’ll be joined alongside action golf contributor Tony Sor for these Best Bets episodes and just like Jason and Ben have done the last couple of years Tony
And I will play 18 holes today giving our 18 favorite picks for this week’s tour Evette the Houston open before we dive into this week’s episode a reminder that the links and locks podcast is presented by bet 365 bet 365 doesn’t do ordinary that’s why you get more boost
With them than with anyone else every day they power up the odds on hundreds of bets to give you a chance to win more bet 365 boost specific markets your winnings and even parlays and they don’t stop there keep an eye out for their biggest and best odds with the
Incredible super boost check out the Boost and see why it’s never ordinary I bet 365 must be 21 or older and present in Arizona Colorado Iowa Louisiana New Jersey Ohio Virginia or 18 and older in Kentucky gambling problem call 1 800 Gambler or 1 1800 bets off in Iowa terms
Conditions and restrictions apply okay Tony we’re on the first T here for our Houston open Best Bets get us started all right well I’m going chalk I’m not going the chalk I’m not doing the three to one but I’m going the next guy up and
That’s Windam Clark at 14 to1 at um 14 to one excuse me I mean to me in this field there’s Scotty there’s Windam Clark and there’s everyone else and like that’s all due respect to zotes falala but like in my opinion those three guys Trail Clark and sheffler by a pretty
Wide margin and then even if you get after those three then the field really starts to nose dive so in my eyes it’s on paper should be a two horse race at least between sheffler and Clark and I’m not betting a guy three to one in a Tour
Event I’m just not going to do that so and I mean sheffler has not won in 19 of his past 22 tournaments yes he’s the best golfer in the world but he’s won three tournaments in his past 22 so I’m not I’m not justifying betting three to
One so that brings me to Clark who profiles well for Memorial Park um he ranks 11th on tour and greens in regulation percentage this season and I and I’ve talked about this before like hitting greens obviously can give you success anywhere but there’s certain courses where hitting greens amplifies
Your chances of success and Memorial Park is one of those courses last year if you looked at the leaderboard um each of the top three finishers finished or ranked seventh or higher among the fields in greens and regulation percentage that was the only statistic or metric in which such like a
Dominating Trend prevailed last year in Houston and Clark finished 16th year last year it’s a pretty weak field once you get past the top five guys so at 14 to1 he’s he’s my favorite pick in the outright Market I’m gonna stick with the outright market and go with sewo Kim 32
To1 enhanced on bet 365 uh I just love the way that sew is playing right now is coming off a top 10 finish at the Players where he gained Strokes in all four major categories uh Memorial Park is a golf course that tests all aspects of her game right you
Need to be a good driver of the ball great mid to Long Armon player ton of touch and creativity around the greens uh these are Tom do greens I just spent the weekend playing a Tom do course in Florida uh very undulating lot of green side surrounding runoffs and closely
Moan areas you have to have a lot of creativity there’s not many bunkers on this course you’re going to be chipping off of these tight Bermuda wise and uh SE Kim has one of the most underrated short games on the PGA tour he’s also a great ball Striker
At that as well and last time he was at Memorial Park he gained almost nine Strokes on approach so uh I think this is a week where sewo Kim notches another Victory I believe it would be his fifth PGA Tour Victory so he’s certainly proven his medal four and bigger events
Won the PLAYERS Championship uh in a great field when he was 500 to1 so I don’t think he’s afraid of Scotty I’m gonna take on Scotty this week and go with seei Kim 32 to1 enhanced win on bet 365 I love it and that’s a good transition because I’m also on seu Kim
I’m in the first leader Market um but same reasons you like him so first round leader 45 to1 um he’s just a guy and you kind of talked about this he’s just a guy that’s always worth a d throw in my opinion like you know what you’re going
To get from SIU Kim he’s so accurate both off the te and on the approach and like you said his short game is very underrated there’s just so many reasons to like him he’s 12th on tour and greens in regulation percentage it’s such a high floor play and if I see the number
Of 45 to1 especially once you can pass those top dogs here this week then yeah seuk Kim is also a guy I like this week in the first round leader Market I’m gonna go back to the outright Market V 365 enhanced win 45 to1 on Stephan joerger I talked about
Uh the necessity to have a complete game at Memorial Park how this tests all aspects of your game Stephan jger is quietly one of the most well-rounded players on the PGA tour he’s got a great short game uh he’s had a lot of success on Bermuda greens Bermuda overseed
Greens um and all of his best finishes this year have came on longer golf courses Memorial Parks very long that are long iron heavy um and require you know benefit uh carry distance right Tory Pines dto viarta those are all longer driver heavy golf courses where
You’re going to get a lot of irons particularly Tory to emphasizes short game I’m kind of in the camp that this is a carry distance and and short game week uh with some middle irons the importance of middle irons mixed in as well and Jagger checks those boxes more
So than than maybe any other player in the field once you get past the the the Scotty Sheffer of it all so uh 45 to1 Stephan joerger enhanced win is my second outright that I’m rolling with I’ll keep us in the outright market and I’ll keep us at the same EXA exact price
At 45 to1 and that’s Keith Mitchell and I know it’s like what a wild week it was for Mitchell last week at the valpar looked tremendous through the first three rounds was in the final grouping with the lead and then Sunday happened they sh I don’t know 77 78 something
Like that actually just fell apart tumbled from first to finish 17th but I’m not going to let that one really really poor day from him ruin how good of a week it was he was really really sharp in the first three rounds and I think if mentally he scraps that Sunday
And returns to form in this tournament then he’s absolutely live at 45 to one um great um approach player he ranks six on tour in Greens in regulation percentage and again it’s just it’s that it’s getting over that mental hurdle of that terrible Sunday which is why I
Think maybe this price is a little long 45 in 45 to1 in this spot but if he plays how he played in those first three rounds he he can stay up there with Clark sheffler and the better players up top I’m gonna lead us into the top 10
Market and go with Alex norin top 10 plus 350 uh I don’t know if I have total confidence that norin is the type of guy to close out and win this golf tournament he is still never won on the PGA tour but in terms of a player that I
Think has one of the highest likelihoods to finish top 10 this week to contend this week to be relevant in this tournament come Sunday afternoon in Houston I love love the way that Alex noron is playing right now he’s got back-to-back top 20 finishes uh at the cognizant classic and the PLAYERS
Championship uh he’s a Bermuda guy he’s had a ton of success on Bermuda in the past he has played very well at Memorial Park in the past I believe he has a Seventh Place finish here where he gained over or a fourth place finish where he gained over seven strokes on
Approach um and he’s just playing some great golf right now like I think you want to always play norin when the ball striking looks good because you know how deadly can be around the greens and with the Putter and you’re always that one week away from that total Spike short
Game and putting performance from norin and you know if the ball striking continues to be what it has been that could be a top 10 certainly maybe even something a little bit better than that so plus 450 sorry plus 350 bet 365 on Alex noren to finish in the top 10 this
Week yeah our listeners either going to love us or hate us because we’re really on the same page today I’m also on Alex noren I have him outright uh 40 to one again same reasons you have it um he’s just he’s been playing Super consistent golf he’s made 11 straight um he’s made
The weekend in 11 straight tournaments he’s got two top three finishes over that stretch granted not necessarily at the most difficult venues but still I mean still a top three finish on tour um it’s kind of a week again once you get past the top like five to 10 guys the
Field kind of weaken so if norin is going to get the job done I could see it being an event like this as long as is we get a down week from Scotty you know but um like you said just there’s a lot to like about his game this week ranks
Fourth on tour and greens and regulation percentage he’s been a striking ball really well 40 to one why not on Alex norn I’m gonna go with Luke list in the top 10 Market at six to one I thought these were great odds on Luke list uh
One of the things I’ve spoken about with one of my buddies who I was just playing golf with this weekend who lives about five miles from Memorial Park he’s a Houston guy plays Houston all the time he talked to me about how this is there’s a lot of Rivier in this golf
Course right and if you look at the guys who’ve played well at Houston in the past Sam Burns DJ Hideki Matsuyama Jason kokra Adam hadwin those are all guys that played really well at Rivier too and I think the reason for that is both golf courses are are what I would
Describe as death by thousand paper cuts courses right they’re not a lot of Hazards off the te both of them rank bottom 10 in penalty stres per round but they’re really tough around the greens it’s a lot of mid to Long irons to greens with some EV undulation and
They’re they’re both golf courses that sort of meticulously break a player down and you can get on the bogey train really quickly obviously Luke Les finished runner up at Rivier this year he’s he’s played well at Houston actually in the past he’s been really good around the greens at Houston in the
Pass which is really encouraging and obviously he’s got that power off the te in the middle iron play that I love is as well uh that has served him well at Riviera in the past that has served him well on tougher longer golf courses in
The past um that has served him well at this golf course in the past so I’m gonna go with luk les six to one top 10 I like that a lot and for my final outright winner I’m gonna go Billy Hall 60 to one this is my Boomer bus play of
The week but I mean when he’s swinging the clubs well and he has been doing that recently he can absolutely take down this field he’s coming off a 12th Place finish at the valbar last week he finished ninth two turn prior at the cognizant so why I called it Boomer bust
Is because hell has missed the cut in four of his past 10 tournaments and I think that’s why this number is 60 to one but out of those four out of those six Cuts he did make he finished inside the top 25 of those six times so when
He’s on he’s on and when he’s off he’s off so Boomer bust at 60 to1 with a guy with so much experience uh experience on tour excuse me and you know he can hit greens I think it’s worth a shot at 61 on Billy Ho I’m gonna take us into the
Top 20 market and go with Joel Damon 3 to one um Damon is just hitting the ball incredibly well right now he has gained over 13 Strokes on approach in his last two starts and now he is traveling to a golf course uh that he’s had a ton of
Success at in the past and two appearances at Memorial Park damus as Damon has finished ninth and fifth um the driver looks incredibly well for him too looks incredibly good for him too right now um it’s really just the chipping and putting that has been a bit
Of a problem for Damon but he’s chipped and putted well at Memorial Park in the past and I just think if you are giving me a guy that is striking his irons that well right now that is driving the ball that well right now that has played so
Well on this golf course in the past I think he could still finish top 20 in this tournament uh as a negative putter uh and maybe even a little bit better he putts to just neutral so I’m going to go with Joel Damon plus 300 in the top 20
Market I think that is a steal based on the way that Damon is hitting the ball right now yeah I agree with you that number I didn’t see that number that number shocks me um I’m gonna go to top 10 Market I hit a Dar throw with Mal not
The outright obviously but I hit a Darth throw with malady last week at nine to1 to finish in the top 20 I’m gon to take another nine to one um prop here at top 10 I’m going to go towards Victor Perez so unsurprisingly Sheffer ranks first on T and greens in regulation percentage
The sky is blue what shocks me the most is that Victor perz is second that’s the guy who Trails chefler on tour and greens in regulation percentage so I mean he can hit greens his approach game has been good this year and he finished third at the Puerto Rico Puerto Rico
Open and he also finished 16th at the cognizant he’s got two top 20 finishes over his past three tournaments and one of those is a third place finish and he has a propensity to hit greens at a high clip so I mean why not Darth throw 9 to1
I’ve seen crazier things happen such as Peter Mady winning last week um speaking of crazy things happening uh well I suppose I have him in the top 20 market so this wouldn’t be that crazy if he finished in the top 20 Market but I’m going to go with Jo
Joseph bramin plus 350 to finish top 20 uh kind of a B minus version of everything you’re getting from localist right I mean Joseph bramlet hits the ball a mile he is one of the best long iron players out of the rough in this entire field he actually has a really
Sneaky good short game as well bramlet gained five Strokes around the green last week at the V bar he also gained 3.8 Strokes on Approach at the V bar he finished 17th last week he’s also uh played well at Memorial Park in the past he’s a top 20 in his last finish at
Memorial Park and I think that Luke L skill set uh that I love of high carry distance great mid to Long iron play and he’s actually got a lot better of a short game than l as well so I’m going to go with Joseph bramlet top 20 plus
350 on bet 365 I’ll keep us in the top 20 Market I’m going to go after Raphael Campos which is plus 650 so another bit of a longer play Dart throw here but um again I’ve been talking about hitting greens all all podcast and Campos hits green Campos hitting greens has not been
An issue All Season he ranks 13th on tour this year in hitting greens and regulation I just I think there’s worse numbers to take especially cuz like again I said earlier that like you get the top two guys and you have the three after that and then there’s maybe five
More guys after that where it’s like that’s kind of like the tier at the top right after that this tournament opens wide up so I think at plus 650 there’s so many Dar thrs you can make this week for guys finish top 10 or excuse me top
20 and I like Campos just based on his ability to hit greens recently I’m going to take us into the first round leader market and start with a guy that I think should be in your first round leader consideration every single week I’m talking about Andrew Novak Andrew Novak um raises his
Baseline in the first round of golf tournaments more so than any other player on tour uh compared to how he plays in rounds two through four Andrew Novak is a superstar in rounds one he is the number two player in this entire Field behind Scotty sheffler in round
One scoring average over the last 12 months he’s coming off another Strong finish at the Val bar where he gained over five Strokes on approach and finished 17th he’s actually got four top 20s now in his last five stars so Andrew Novak is playing some incredible golf uh
The irons are particularly strong and he just loves to get off to a hot start so Andrew Novak is 80 to one on the fir in the first round leader Market I think course agnostic you just bet Andrew novic first round leader uh every time
He’s teeing it up I’m going to keep us in the first round leader market and right around the same price and it’s a guy you went after last week and that’s Aaron Ry 70 to1 um in the first round leader I just kind of want to buy low on
Him because he’s as you talked about last week too he’s been playing such good golf I know last week wasn’t his week at the valpar but he’s been playing really good golf before that he had three straight finishes inside the top 35 and like I was talking about seu Kim
Ear or we were talking about seu Kim earlier he’s an extremely accurate striker of the golf ball he ranks eighth on tour in greens and regulation percentage and he’s also super accurate off the te um I think he’s just like he’s going to keep it straight he’s
Going to not make too many mistakes and then all it takes is a hot Putter and anyone can win you know it’s a first round leader anyone can win the first round right so if the putter gets going I trust his accuracy to get him to the
Greens it’s just if the putter can drop and I think after a down week why why not for the putter to start strong for us on Thursday so 70 to1 Aaron Ry I’m going to stick in the first round later for one more and go with Davis Thompson
75 to1 first round later I love this guy he’s on my betting card in some way shape or fashion every single week it did not work out for us last week at the valpar but I’m not deterred one bit he still gained four strokes on approach
He’s played well at this golf course in the past he is a great driver of the ball um he’s long he’s straight he’s a great iron player he’s a great mid toong iron player again I don’t know if I think he has what it takes to close a
Golf tournament right now but similar to Andrew Novak this is a perfect Market to deploy him because Davis Thompson loves getting off to hot starts he ranks top 15 in this field in round one scoring average over the last 12 months I like him at this golf course uh in any way
Shape for Mor fashion he is a Southeastern Bermuda guy um he’s got the ball striking chops to compete here uh so I’m going to go with Davis Thompson 75 to1 in the first round leader Market awesome and for my final play I’m going to keep us in the first round
Leader I hate this play so much but I’m I’m going to do it I need to back him in some way I’m going to go Sheffer on the first round leader Market moves him from 3 to1 to 12 to1 I I mean like I said this it’s a disgusting play but I feel
Like what’s going to happen I feel like could definitely happen is he’s going to go out there he’s going to lead after three in the first round go wire to wire and like I just don’t want to be the guy who has no sort of action on it
Whatsoever this week espe I feel like even at the ridiculously low price at there’s going to be so many people riding sh this week almost just because he’s 3 to1 so they’re probably going to think oh there’s no way he loses and there may not be cuz his putter is
Figured out over the last two uh wins he has he’s gained true Strokes gained putting in both of them and not and that and those two tournaments with the first two where he switched over to that new putter but not only that he’s gained more Strokes putting over those two
Tournaments than he had in the previous 15 combined so I mean if the if his putter is truly figured out the tour season’s probably done he’s going to go on and win you know 60% of the events moving forward or well I guess you’ll only play signatures and Majors but 60%
Of those moving forward if that putter is indeed figured out so I just want to be on this guy in some way this week and at first round leader you can move from 3 to1 to 12 to1 so that’s my final play this week you’re reading my mind because
My uh my final one is kind of a fun Alternative Market on Scotty Sheffer I I listen I’m not going to bet the guy at at plus 250 I actually if you’re telling me Scotty sheff or the field I I would still take the field that doesn’t mean
I’m not terrified of him and think he’s the most likely winner of this golf tournament uh but this is a fun bet provided by bet 365 that I thought was interesting Scotty shefford a win in a playoff is 22 to1 um which I thought was was wild right because first of all
Every single week on the PGA tour whether there’s a playoff or not it’s pretty much coming down to the one I think we can confidently say that Scotty shord will probably be there right he’ll he’ll be somewhere close to the lead heading into the final round and if he
Gets into a playoff he is going to be heavily favored against anybody that he is playing in that playoff so if you just get him into the playoff um you’re probably in a no loose situation where you could take the guy he’s playing at at heavy plus money against him anyway
And um you know I was looking at the other markets for it like he’s he’s plus 500 to win by Two Strokes he’s plus 750 to win by three or more Strokes um I I I don’t understand why he’s 22 to1 to win the playoff that that that seems totally
Off to me so um I think that’s a fun one I it’s a fun way to get some exposure to Sheffer without laying the the the two plus 250 for I mean he’s like he’s like plus minus 230 to finish in the top 10 at this point so it’s pretty tough to
Find ways to deploy Scott share I thought this was a pretty fun one and that’ll do it for our best bats episode for the Houston open before we get out of here a final reminder that the linkx and locks podcast is presented by bet 365 bet 365 doesn’t do ordinary that’s
Why you get more boost with them than with anyone else every day they power up the odds on hundreds of bets to give you a chance to win more bet 365 boost specific markets your winnings and even par and they don’t stop there keep an eye
Out for their biggest and best odds with the incredible super boost check out the Boost and see why it’s never ordinary at bet 365 must be 21 or older and present in Arizona Colorado Iowa Louisiana New Jersey Ohio Virginia or 18 and older in Kentucky gambling problem call 1 800
Gambler or 1 1800 bets off in Iowa terms conditions and restrictions apply as a reminder our Action Network action experts Spencer agar and Nick brwi return with host Roberto Arguello tomorrow for Houston open betting preview right here on the links and locks podcast so for Tony Sartori I am
Your host Andy lack and we will see you back here next week on the links and locks podcast presented by bet 365 for
